The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall across several major regions of the country for the June-September monsoon season. The department also warned that heatwave conditions may affect multiple states starting from June.
Rainfall Forecast
Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology, stated that India is likely to receive 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall during the monsoon season, with a model error margin of 4%. The IMD has predicted rainfall at less than 92% of the LPA for most parts of the country. However, some areas in Northwest India, Northeast India, and the southern peninsula may experience normal to above-normal rainfall.
According to the regional outlook, Northeast India is expected to record normal rainfall, ranging between 94% and 106% of the LPA. In contrast, Central India, South Peninsular India, Northwest India, and the Monsoon Core Zone are likely to witness below-normal rainfall during the season.
Temperature and Heatwave Forecast
The IMD also forecast above-normal temperatures in most regions during June. States such as Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, and Andhra Pradesh may see an above-normal number of heatwave days. Increased heatwave activity is also likely in parts of Maharashtra, Telangana, and Tamil Nadu.
Dr. Mohapatra informed, "Maximum temperatures will be above normal for most of the country, except for parts of Central, Northwest, and East India. Minimum temperatures are also expected to remain mostly above normal."
Monsoon Progress and ENSO Conditions
The southwest monsoon reached the Andaman and Nicobar Islands on May 16, four days earlier than its normal onset date. It has since advanced into the South Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep, with conditions remaining favorable for its onset over Kerala and the northeastern states in the coming week.
Dr. Mohapatra further noted that neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are shifting towards El Niño, with the probability of El Niño conditions rising to 82% by June and exceeding 90% during July and August. Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are expected to persist throughout the monsoon season.
Immediate Relief from Heat
Meanwhile, the IMD predicted relief from intense heat over Northwest India during the next three days due to western disturbances and easterly winds, along with thunderstorms, gusty winds, and hailstorm activity in several regions.
