The India Meteorological Department (IMD) released the second half of its updated long-range forecast for the 2026 southwest monsoon on Friday. The latest probability maps indicate a below-normal rainfall signal over most parts of Maharashtra during both the June-September season and the crucial onset month of June.
Seasonal Rainfall Outlook
The IMD’s updated seasonal rainfall outlook shows a dominant spread of yellow to orange shades across large parts of the state, indicating a higher probability of below-normal rainfall during the four-month rainy season. The below-normal signal extends across much of Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, and Vidarbha, with only scattered pockets showing chances of normal rainfall.
The forecast map suggests that western Maharashtra, including large parts of the rain-shadow region, could remain vulnerable to rainfall deficiency if the forecast pattern holds through the season.
June Rainfall and Temperature Outlook
The June rainfall outlook, critical for monsoon onset and early sowing activity, also shows Maharashtra largely under the below-normal rainfall category. Most districts are shaded in yellow tones, indicating that the first month of monsoon may begin on a weaker footing across large parts of the state. However, a few pockets in parts of south Maharashtra show probabilities favoring normal June rainfall.
The temperature outlook for June indicates warmer-than-normal conditions over Maharashtra. The maximum temperature forecast places large parts of the state in the above-normal category, particularly across interior Maharashtra, Marathwada, and Vidarbha, due to less clouding and below-normal rain. The minimum temperature outlook indicates above-normal night temperatures across much of Maharashtra. The strongest warmer nights signal is visible over southern and interior parts of the state, raising the possibility of persistently warm and humid conditions.
El Nino Concerns
While monsoon performance depends on multiple factors, the emerging El Nino signal over the equatorial Pacific remains a key concern. An IMD official explained, “El Nino generally weakens the monsoon circulation and reduces moisture transport over the Indian region. The updated forecast incorporates the latest oceanic and atmospheric conditions, which are currently indicating a higher probability of below-normal rainfall over several parts of the country, including Maharashtra.”
The forecast underscores the need for preparedness among farmers and water resource managers, as reduced rainfall could impact agriculture and water availability in the state.
