Widespread Disruption Expected Across Southern and Eastern India
India is preparing for an extended period of severe and disruptive weather, with multiple regions set to experience heavy rainfall, powerful thunderstorms, strong squally winds, and dangerously rough sea conditions. The India Meteorological Department (IMD), in its latest All India Weather Summary and Forecast Bulletin dated November 26, 2025, has identified several key weather systems driving this turbulent pattern, which will unfold from November 27 onwards.
Major Rain-Bearing Systems and Their Impact
The primary driver of the impending bad weather is a well-marked low-pressure area currently situated over the southwest Bay of Bengal, south of Sri Lanka, and the adjoining Equatorial Indian Ocean. This system is forecast to remain nearly stationary for several days, acting as a major moisture source and leading to recurrent spells of intense rainfall.
Tamil Nadu is expected to bear the brunt of this system's impact, with heavy to very heavy rainfall predicted to continue until December 1. The situation is set to intensify on November 29 and 30, when the state may witness isolated instances of extremely heavy rainfall. The northern districts of Tamil Nadu, along with the inland areas of Puducherry and Karaikal, are likely to experience the most severe downpours.
Simultaneously, the influence of Cyclonic Storm Senyar over the Andaman & Nicobar Islands remains potent. The archipelago is bracing for heavy to very heavy rainfall on November 27, followed by isolated heavy rain on November 28 and 29. The cyclone will also fuel thunderstorms accompanied by powerful winds, with gusts reaching 50–60 kmph in the initial days and 40–50 kmph on November 29.
Thunderstorms, Wind Warnings, and Sea Conditions
Thunderstorm activity is a significant concern for the entire southern peninsula this week. While Tamil Nadu will experience these storms until November 30, Kerala and Mahe will see similar conditions through November 27. Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, and Rayalaseema are also on alert for thunderstorms on November 29 and 30, coinciding with the expected heavy rainfall in these regions.
The IMD has issued serious warnings regarding strong, squally winds across multiple marine zones. Wind speeds of 50–60 kmph, gusting to 70 kmph, are forecast until November 28 in the South Andaman Sea, Strait of Malacca, and the Nicobar region. Similarly, the southeast Bay of Bengal, Gulf of Mannar, Comorin area, and coasts along Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka will experience winds intensifying to 55–65 kmph, gusting to 75 kmph, between November 28 and 30.
Consequently, sea conditions are predicted to be rough to very rough in these areas, posing a severe threat to maritime activities.
Advisories, Temperature Shifts, and Broader Outlook
In light of the dangerous sea state, the IMD has issued strict advisories for fishermen. They are strongly warned against venturing into the South Andaman Sea, Strait of Malacca, and Nicobar region until November 28. A similar ban is in effect for the southeast Bay of Bengal until November 28 and for the southwest Bay of Bengal, Gulf of Mannar, and Comorin area until November 30. Fishermen along the South Andhra Pradesh coast have been urged to return to shore immediately as conditions are set to deteriorate from November 27.
Beyond the rain and storms, significant temperature shifts are anticipated in other parts of the country. Minimum temperatures in West India are expected to remain stable for two days before falling by 2–3 degrees Celsius. In contrast, East India will see a gradual warming trend over the next three days. Central regions, including Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, and Chhattisgarh, are also set for a 2–3 degrees Celsius drop in minimum temperatures, heralding cooler mornings. Northeast India will maintain steady temperatures with no major changes expected through December 1.
The overall weather outlook from November 29 to December 1 indicates a continuation of widespread rainfall over north Tamil Nadu, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands, with scattered showers likely in Coastal Karnataka and south interior Karnataka.
