Iranians Risk Lives in Sustained Street Protests
For several weeks now, Iranian citizens have been taking to the streets. They are risking their lives in widespread demonstrations. What started as anger over a collapsing currency and skyrocketing food prices has transformed. It has become the most persistent challenge to the Islamic Republic in many years.
US Withdraws Personnel as Tensions Spike
The United States is pulling some personnel from military bases across the Middle East. This move comes as tensions rise sharply over the possibility of American strikes against Iran. The drawdown is a precautionary measure.
It followed a warning from a senior Iranian official. Tehran told neighboring countries it would target US bases in the region if Washington attacks first. A Western military official described the atmosphere as highly volatile. "All the signals indicate a US attack is imminent," the official said. "But that is also how this administration behaves to keep everyone guessing. Unpredictability is part of their strategy."
Trump's Wait-and-See Approach
At the White House, President Donald Trump suggested he was adopting a cautious stance. Trump told reporters he received information that the Iranian regime's violence against protesters was easing. "We've been told that the killing in Iran is stopping - it's stopped - it's stopping," he stated. He added there was "no plan for executions" according to his sources.
When asked about these sources, Trump called them "very important sources on the other side." Still, he did not rule out future action. "We are going to watch what the process is," he said after receiving what he termed a "very good statement" from Iran.
Iran's Mixed Signals
Iran, meanwhile, sent conflicting messages. It warned of retaliation while also dialing down its public rhetoric. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Fox News directly: "There is no plan for hanging at all. Hanging is out of the question." He insisted repeatedly that "there is no plan" for executions.
In a speech, Trump urged Iranian protesters to continue. "Iranian Patriots, KEEP PROTESTING - TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!! Save the names of the killers and abusers. They will pay a big price," he declared. He announced cancelling meetings with Iranian officials until the killing stops, adding "HELP IS ON ITS WAY."
Why This Uprising Matters
The current Iran uprising is unusual in several key aspects:
- Scale: It spans all 31 provinces of the country.
- Composition: It unites bazaar merchants, students, truck drivers, professionals and unemployed youth.
- Duration: It represents the most sustained challenge to the regime in years.
The regime appears economically exhausted and politically exposed. However, history shows that foreign military pressure often gives Tehran a lifeline. Even the threat of US or Israeli strikes can shift public focus. It moves from regime failure to national survival. This can fracture protest coalitions and justify sweeping crackdowns. When Iran's leaders struggle to regain control, outside force could hand them their most powerful tool: nationalism.
An Economy That Broke the System
The protests began on December 28. They were triggered by a sharp slide in the rial currency and a rejected budget proposal. That proposal would have removed a preferential exchange rate widely seen as corrupt. Within days, economic anger morphed into political revolt.
Current economic conditions are dire:
- Inflation is surging dramatically.
- Food prices have jumped to alarming levels.
- Water rationing now affects major cities including Tehran.
Bazaar strikes have spread from mobile phone and electronics markets to transport and logistics. According to rights groups, hundreds of protesters have been killed. More than 10,000 have been arrested. The true toll is likely much higher due to internet blackouts and intimidation.
Even senior officials acknowledge failure. President Masoud Pezeshkian admitted openly that the government is "stuck." Parliament rejected his administration's 2026 budget as inadequate. The regime rushed to install a new central bank governor. It promised massive increases in cash subsidies. Economists say Tehran cannot afford these without triggering another currency collapse.
A Regime Weaker Than It Appears
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, now 86, presides over a system battered on multiple fronts:
- Iran's economy is stagnant and heavily dependent on oil and gas.
- Infrastructure is decaying visibly.
- Environmental mismanagement has left rivers dry and farmland failing.
- Educated youth face chronic unemployment with little hope of advancement.
Khamenei faces a difficult dilemma. He understands that opening Iran's markets and society enough to fix economic problems will also speed the end of his rule. So he and other hard-line leaders have resorted to blaming external instigators. State-controlled media claim protests are "manufactured chaos" originating from spy agencies in Israel, Washington, and the United Kingdom.
Regionally, Iran's position has deteriorated. Its "axis of resistance" has weakened. Its missile forces suffered damage in last year's 12-day conflict with Israel. Its deterrence credibility has eroded. Yet none of this has translated into relief for ordinary Iranians. This is a key reason public anger keeps boiling over.
This combination has left the regime exposed but not yet fractured. The security elite remains intact. It is anchored by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and allied militias numbering in the hundreds of thousands. Analysts note that no successful uprising in Iran's modern history has occurred without splits at the top. That has not happened yet.
Why Trump May Be Tempted to Intervene
Iran's clerical dictatorship has rarely looked this weak. That vulnerability is exactly why President Donald Trump could be tempted to intervene according to reports. Several factors create this temptation:
- A regime weakened internally and constrained externally.
- An economic crunch making unrest harder to contain.
- A looming succession raising elite infighting risks.
- Iran's reduced deterrence lowering the perceived cost of US pressure.
- Ending Tehran's Islamic regime appealing to US hawks given its proxy war history.
It could also fit Trump's regional vision of a safer Israel and a more stable, economically integrated Middle East.
How Trump's Threats Actually Help Tehran
In a CBS interview, Trump said the US would act if Iran began hanging protesters. "We will take very strong action if they do such a thing," he warned. "When they start killing thousands of people -- and now you're telling me about hanging. We'll see how that's going to work out for them."
Trump's language is unusually explicit. He has urged protesters to "take over" institutions. He warned of strikes if executions occur. He floated measures ranging from tariffs to restoring internet access via Starlink.
For Tehran, this is a gift. State media and officials have long claimed protests are "manufactured chaos" orchestrated by Washington and Israel. Iran's UN ambassador accused the US of "interventionist rhetoric" and seeking a pretext for military action. Trump's statements reinforce that narrative just as it was losing credibility at home.
Recent history provides a clear lesson. Last June, antigovernment protests were building when the 12-day war with Israel and the US erupted. As bombs fell, demonstrations evaporated. Citizens focused on survival, not reform. This gave Tehran a crucial reprieve. Analysts say a new round of strikes would likely produce the same rally-around-the-flag effect.
That dynamic explains why some Revolutionary Guard commanders have reportedly discussed provoking retaliation. A foreign attack would allow the regime to reframe dissent as treason. It could justify far bloodier repression.
The Venezuela Model Considered
Trump faces a narrow and consequential choice. Non-kinetic pressure could raise costs for Tehran without handing it a nationalist rallying cry. This includes:
- Tighter sanctions enforcement.
- Diplomatic isolation.
- Support for human rights monitoring.
- Expanded access to information.
Direct military action, by contrast, risks rescuing a regime that is failing under its own misrule. The idea of a "Venezuela model" is gaining traction in some Washington and Jerusalem circles according to reports. This concept imagines removing Iran's top authority while sending a clear message to the rest of the state machinery: remain in place if it cooperates.
But applying this approach to Iran runs into serious barriers:
- A security state hardened over decades.
- Strong institutional unity.
- A country far larger and more ethnically complex than Venezuela.
Foreign military action could splinter Iran along ethnic and sectarian fault lines. This is especially true in Kurdish and Sunni Balush areas where resistance movements have a long history. For now, practical constraints also shape what's possible. US military resources are stretched elsewhere though deployments could change quickly.
The Boomerang Effect: No Savior Waiting
One reason foreign intervention is so risky is Iran's fragmented opposition. There is no unifying figure akin to Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1979. Former crown prince Reza Pahlavi has symbolic appeal to some. But decades in exile have left him with little organizational capacity inside Iran. Many Iranians recoil at the idea of a US-backed monarchy.
The National Council of Resistance of Iran, associated with the MEK, is widely disliked for its past alliances and ideology. Reformist figures from earlier eras are aging, sidelined, or under detention. As one analyst put it, Iranians "share grievances, not a movement."
That fragmentation makes foreign military action especially dangerous. Without a credible "day after," strikes could:
- Empower hard-line security actors.
- Trigger ethnic and regional fragmentation.
- Freeze the system in a more militarized form.
Vali Nasr, an Iranian-American academic, explained the requirements for success: "For this sort of thing to succeed, you have to have crowds in the streets for a much longer period of time. And you have to have a breakup of the state. Some segments of the state, and particularly the security forces, have to defect."
The Bottom Line
Iran's clerical system is weaker than it has been in decades. It is battered by economic collapse, environmental crisis and sustained public anger. It does not need missiles to expose these failures.
At this critical moment, the greatest risk to Iran's protest movement may not be repression alone. It could be rescue. A US strike, or even the sustained threat of one, could shift the country's trajectory. It could move from internal reckoning to external confrontation. This would buy Khamenei time he no longer has on his own.
