Skymet Predicts Below Normal Monsoon Rainfall for India in 2024
Private weather forecasting agency Skymet has issued a concerning prediction for India's upcoming monsoon season, forecasting below normal rainfall this year. The announcement, made on Tuesday, highlights the growing risk of El Niño conditions, which are expected to develop and intensify during the second half of the monsoon period, specifically in August and September. This four-month season, crucial for the nation's agricultural and economic health, begins in June.
Potential Impact on Agriculture and Economy
If the forecast holds true, India's farm sector could face significant challenges. Already grappling with the possibility of high input costs for fertilizers and diesel due to geopolitical tensions in West Asia, the agricultural industry may encounter additional tough conditions. More than half of India's farming operations rely heavily on monsoon rains for irrigation, making a subpar season a critical concern for food security and rural livelihoods.
El Niño and Its Historical Effects
El Niño, a climate phenomenon characterized by the warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, is invariably linked to depressed monsoon rains in the Indian subcontinent. Skymet's managing director, Jatin Singh, emphasized that the equatorial Pacific ocean-atmosphere coupling is now stronger than before, with El Niño expected to emerge early in the southwest monsoon and grow stronger through the fall. This could lead to a weaker monsoon overall, with the second half of the season predicted to be more erratic and irregular.
Detailed Rainfall Projections and Probabilities
According to Skymet, the upcoming monsoon is projected to be below normal, at approximately 94% of the long-period average (LPA) of 868.6 mm for June to September, with an error margin of +/-5%. This places it in the 90-95% of LPA range. The agency underscored a 40% probability of below normal monsoon rainfall and an additional 30% chance of drought, defined as rainfall falling below 90% of the LPA.
Geographical Distribution of Rainfall
In terms of regional impact, Skymet expects the core monsoon rainfed zones in central and western India to experience inadequate rainfall. States such as Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan are likely to see less than normal rains, particularly during August and September. In contrast, the eastern and northeastern parts of the country are anticipated to fare better, with more favorable conditions compared to other regions.
Counteracting Factors and Monthly Forecast
Despite the El Niño threat, Skymet noted a strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), another climatic phenomenon that influences monsoon rains. This has the potential to partially offset the adverse effects of El Niño. However, the IOD is expected to be neutral or delicately positive, contributing to a decent start but not fully mitigating risks later in the season.
On a monthly scale, Skymet forecasts normal rainfall in June at 101% of the monthly LPA, but a gradual decline thereafter: 95% in July, 92% in August, and 89% in September. This pattern underscores the increasing vulnerability as the season progresses.
Broader Context and Authoritative Forecasts
While the India Meteorological Department (IMD), considered the most authoritative forecaster, is expected to release its monsoon prediction later this week or next week, the possibility of a subpar season is not ruled out. Global agencies have also indicated a gradual increase in El Niño conditions towards the later phase of the monsoon, aligning with Skymet's assessment. This convergence of predictions highlights the need for preparedness in agriculture and water resource management across the country.
