The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has indicated a likely return of El Nino conditions as early as May to July this year, with climate models pointing to rapidly rising sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific.
WMO Global Seasonal Climate Update
In its latest Global Seasonal Climate Update, the WMO said there is growing confidence in the onset of El Nino after neutral conditions earlier this year. Wilfran Moufouma Okia stated, "After a period of neutral conditions at the start of the year, climate models are now strongly aligned, and there is high confidence in the onset of El Nino, followed by further intensification in the months that follow." He added, "Models indicate that this may be a strong event, but the so-called spring predictability barrier is a challenge for the certainty of forecasts at this time of year. Forecast confidence generally improves after April."
The report projected a nearly global dominance of above-normal land surface temperatures over the next three months, with significant regional variations in rainfall. El Nino, part of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is known to influence global weather, often weakening monsoon systems in parts of Asia.
What is El Nino?
El Nino is a climate phenomenon marked by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, part of the ENSO cycle. It occurs irregularly every two to seven years and typically lasts around nine to twelve months. During an El Nino event, the usual easterly trade winds weaken or may reverse, disrupting global weather patterns. This can lead to drier conditions in regions such as Australia, Indonesia, and parts of South Asia, while bringing heavier rainfall to parts of the Americas, along with an increased likelihood of extreme weather events.
IMD Forecast and Heatwave
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has also forecasted a below-normal southwest monsoon for 2026, the first such outlook in three years, with rainfall likely at about 92% of the long period average. Even as monsoon concerns mount, a severe heatwave has gripped large parts of Maharashtra's Vidarbha region, pushing temperatures well beyond 45 degrees Celsius and intensifying public discomfort. Akola recorded a blistering 46.9 degrees Celsius, the highest in the country, while Amravati (46.8 degrees Celsius), Wardha (46.4 degrees Celsius), and Yavatmal (46.0 degrees Celsius) closely followed. Nagpur touched 45.4 degrees Celsius, its highest of the season so far, as hot winds and dry conditions prevailed.
There is little respite in sight, with the IMD issuing an orange alert for Akola, Amravati, and Wardha, warning of severe heatwave conditions, while a yellow alert remains in place for Nagpur, Chandrapur, and Buldhana. Akola not only topped national charts but also ranked among the hottest places globally, placing third in the world for the day. Amravati (fourth), Wardha (sixth), Yavatmal (eighth), and Nagpur (tenth) also featured in the global top ten, underlining the intensity of the heatwave across the region.
Delhi Preparedness
In Delhi, authorities have stepped up preparedness. Chief Minister Rekha Gupta announced measures including providing ORS solutions in schools and ensuring uninterrupted power and water supply. She has also directed departments to ensure workers are not exposed to peak heat between 1 pm and 4 pm.
