US Credit Outlook Faces Tougher Second Half as Inflation, Rates Bite Household Budgets
The second half of 2026 is shaping up to be more uneven for US credits, according to a research report by Fitch Ratings. The agency warned that inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates will deepen pressure on consumer-sensitive sectors, while energy-linked industries benefit.
The bifurcated outlook suggests more rating downgrades ahead for retailers, homebuilders, and packaged foods unless real incomes recover, even as natural gas and LNG infrastructure see tailwinds from AI data centre demand and coal-to-gas switching.
According to Fitch Ratings' midyear update to 2026 sector and asset performance outlooks, "Downward sector outlook revisions to 'deteriorating' outnumbered upward revisions, though most outlooks remain unchanged since the beginning of the year."
The agency said sectors with 'deteriorating' outlooks are "concentrated in sectors sensitive to inflation, interest rates and consumer spending, while sectors benefiting from higher energy prices saw positive revisions."
Fitch recently lowered its 2026 US GDP growth forecast to 1.9 per cent from 2.2 per cent, citing the "adverse impact of the oil price shock, partially offset by AI-driven investments." Consumer spending, a key growth driver, is expected to slow materially to 1.7 per cent in 2026 from 2.6 per cent in 2025 "as inflation eats into real household incomes." On monetary policy, Fitch "no longer expects any Fed rate cuts in 2026, having previously anticipated two 25-bps cuts."
The macro stress prompted a sovereign outlook cut. Fitch said, "The deteriorating macro backdrop underpins our revision of the North American Sovereigns outlook to 'deteriorating' from 'neutral'."
The US general government deficit is now projected to widen to 7.9 per cent of GDP in 2026, up from 7.1 per cent in 2025, reflecting "the fiscal impact of tax cuts in the U.S. tax and spending bill and reduced tariff receipts following the Supreme Court's International Emergency Economic Powers Act ruling."
The ratings agency added that the general government debt is expected to exceed 120 per cent of GDP by 2027, and "November's midterm elections introduce additional fiscal uncertainty, with potential for increased political gridlock."
Sector damage is broadening. Fitch revised outlooks for US Homebuilders, North American Building Products, US Packaged Foods, Global Airlines, North American Utilities and Power, and North American Finance and Leasing Companies to 'deteriorating' from 'neutral', reflecting "a squeeze in real household incomes and mounting affordability challenges caused by higher inflation and interest rate expectations."
Retail & Restaurants, non-prime RMBS and several ABS sectors also remain under pressure, with the Iran conflict and fuel price spike "deepening the strain."
Fitch revised North American Midstream Energy and LNG Infrastructure to 'improving', supported by "growing domestic and international demand for US natural gas, power generation growth, coal-to-gas conversions and AI data centre-driven demand." Higher-for-longer oil prices also lifted Global Oil and Gas to 'improving'.
