Canada's Population Growth to Be Fully Driven by Immigration by 2030
An expert has warned that Canada could soon reach a critical demographic milestone where every bit of its population growth stems from immigration, with births no longer contributing to the total. This shift marks a significant departure from historical trends and has profound implications for the nation's economy and social services.
Projections Point to Zero Natural Increase
With population growth now almost flat, the parliamentary budget officer projects that 2026 will mark Canada's second consecutive year of zero growth, based on the federal government's latest Immigration Levels Plan. A 2024 government report further indicates that newcomers are expected to account for all population growth by 2032.
Dan Hiebert, a geography professor at the University of British Columbia who specializes in migration studies, emphasized that the country is entering uncharted territory. "Natural increase in Canada is going to hit zero really soon. Maybe 2029, maybe 2030, give or take, right? And at that point, all population growth is going to be immigration-related, like 100 per cent," he stated, according to CTV News.
He added, "It means that wherever the government of Canada, and in particular Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, sets that immigration number at, that's the amount the population is going to grow. So that's historically unprecedented."
Historical Context and Recent Trends
Canada's population experienced a significant surge following the Covid-19 pandemic, peaking at 3.1 per cent growth in 2023, far above the historic average of 1.1 per cent since 1972. This increase was driven almost entirely by immigration.
Statistics Canada data reveal that in 2024, the population grew by 816,000 temporary and permanent immigrants, while natural growth, defined as births minus deaths, was only about 34,000 people. Immigration has been the leading driver of growth since the start of the millennium. In 2000, approximately 148,000 immigrants arrived, compared with a natural growth of about 110,000. The gap between immigration and natural growth has only widened over the past 25 years.
The latest immigration plan aims to reduce overall arrivals, particularly temporary residents such as students, to alleviate pressure on housing and public services.
Impact on the Housing Market
Rachel Battaglia, an economist at the Royal Bank of Canada, noted that slower population growth is already affecting the housing market. The bank anticipates rents to continue falling this year after sharp increases in the post-pandemic years. Rentals.ca reports that the average rent across Canada dropped in February for the 16th consecutive month, although the pace of decline is now slowing.
Battaglia explained that when fewer newcomers arrive, demand for housing decreases in areas where migrants typically settle. However, she cautioned that lower demand can also reduce incentives to build new homes. She added that housing remains significantly less affordable than before the pandemic, exacerbated by low consumer confidence and a weak job market.
Challenges of an Aging Population
Dan Hiebert also highlighted concerns about Canada's aging population, which will increase the old-age dependency ratio. Currently, there are about 29.5 people aged 65 and over for every 100 working-age individuals. Using Statistics Canada models, he estimates that if population growth averages 0.8 per cent annually, the ratio could rise to approximately 50 retirees for every 100 workers within 50 years.
"The higher that ratio, the tougher it's going to be to have the economy function properly. And also, especially, to have government function properly," Hiebert warned.
He elaborated, "Once people retire, they still draw on social services. And in fact, the draw on social services actually becomes higher over time simply because of the added health care costs ... and at the same time they're putting in less tax revenue, because they aren't working." He urged Ottawa to consider planning beyond its current three-year immigration framework to address these long-term challenges.
