A pivotal change is on the horizon for the coveted H-1B work visa program, which will significantly impact thousands of Indian professionals and students aspiring to build careers in the United States. The Office of Management and Budget (OMB), under President Trump's executive office, is currently reviewing a rule submitted by the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) titled 'Weighted selection process for H-1B cap applications'. Once finalized, this rule will fundamentally overhaul the lottery system used to allocate H-1B visas.
The End of Random Selection: How the New H-1B Lottery Will Work
The core of the proposed change is the shift from a purely random lottery to a wage-based weighted selection process. The DHS intends to tie the lottery odds directly to the salary offered, using the Department of Labor's (DOL) four-tier prevailing wage system. This move comes shortly after the DOL itself sent a separate proposed rule to the OMB seeking to increase these prevailing wage levels across the board.
Under the new mechanism, an H-1B candidate offered a wage at the highest Level IV would have their name entered into the lottery four times. A Level III candidate would get three entries, Level II would get two, and an entry-level professional offered a Level I wage would get only a single entry. This system starkly contrasts with the current process, where every registered beneficiary, regardless of their offered salary, has an equal chance of selection, historically around 29.59%.
Stark Implications for Indian Professionals and US Graduates
The implications of this policy shift are particularly severe for the Indian diaspora and recent international graduates from American universities, who often start at entry-level positions. For the fiscal year ended September 2024, out of 1.41 lakh H-1B applications approved by US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), a substantial 80,449 (or 57%) were for Indian beneficiaries.
Research by the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) quantifies the dramatic shift in odds. Their analysis shows that under the weighted system:
- The probability of selection for a Level IV (highest wage) applicant would increase by a staggering 107%.
- Conversely, the chance for a Level I (entry-level) applicant would plummet by 48%.
In terms of actual selections, NFAP estimates that compared to the current system, Level I candidates would receive 11,518 fewer H-1B selections, while Level IV would gain 4,426 more, Level III would get 5,528 more, and Level II would see an additional 1,564 selections.
Timeline and Industry Outlook
Immigration attorneys widely expect this weighted selection rule to be finalized and implemented before the next H-1B filing season. The annual cap for H-1B visas remains at 85,000. The e-registration process for the upcoming cycle typically opens in March, with demand consistently far exceeding the limited supply.
This reform effectively tilts the playing field heavily toward mid-career and senior professionals, while erecting a significant barrier for those just beginning their careers. It represents a strategic move by the US administration to prioritize higher-skilled, higher-wage foreign workers, potentially at the expense of the traditional pathway used by many Indian tech professionals and fresh graduates to enter the US job market. The rule is now in its final review stage, marking a critical juncture for US immigration policy and its global talent pool.
