The United States has proposed a significant overhaul of its H-1B visa selection process, shifting from a random lottery to a wage-level-based model. However, legal experts warn that a simultaneous proposal for a steep $100,000 filing fee for certain applications could undermine the new system's goals, potentially causing employer demand to plummet.
The New Wage-Based Lottery System
Under the proposed regulations, the chance of an H-1B petition being selected will depend directly on the wage level associated with the offered position. The system uses four wage levels defined by the Department of Labor.
Level I wages, which generally correspond to entry-level roles, will receive one entry into the selection pool. Level II positions, requiring more experience, get two entries. Level III roles for advanced specialists get three entries, and Level IV wages for senior experts receive four entries.
This weighted system dramatically alters selection probabilities. While each individual beneficiary is counted only once toward the annual cap, their odds increase with their wage level. Estimates suggest Level IV roles could see selection probabilities exceeding 60%, Level III around the mid-40% range, while Level I roles face a much lower likelihood.
The $100,000 Fee That Could Change Everything
Indian-origin attorney Rahul Reddy points out a critical flaw in assuming the new model will function as intended. The wage-based system presumes steady application numbers across all wage levels and locations. This assumption, Reddy argues, becomes unreliable when combined with another proposed change: a massive $100,000 filing fee for H-1B cases initiated from outside the United States.
"Even if a role qualifies for a higher wage level and stronger lottery odds, the cost of entry changes employer behavior," Reddy stated. He explained that the exorbitant fee forces companies to reconsider the fundamental value of filing a petition, regardless of improved chances.
Potential for a Shrinking Application Pool
Reddy highlights a domino effect that could render the new selection percentages meaningless. "At some point, employers stop asking what their chances are and start asking whether filing makes sense at all," he said. The core issue is that higher odds do not matter if overall demand falls.
If the high fee causes a sharp decline in overseas filings—a significant portion of H-1B applications—the total selection pool shrinks. Consequently, the projected selection percentages for different wage levels may no longer reflect real-world outcomes. The lottery, while no longer blind, could be skewed by unpredictable drops in application volume driven by cost.
The proposed rules represent a fundamental shift in US immigration policy for skilled workers, prioritizing higher wages. However, the accompanying financial barrier introduces a major variable. The final impact will hinge on whether the promise of better odds for high-wage jobs is enough to justify a $100,000 gamble for employers abroad.
