New government labor data from 2025 delivers a clear message. A sharp decline in foreign-born workers during the Trump administration did not improve employment outcomes for workers born in the United States. The promised job gains for American citizens failed to materialize.
Unemployment Rose for US-Born Workers
Instead of strengthening domestic employment, the data shows unemployment among US-born workers actually increased. The unemployment rate for this group rose from 3.7% in December 2024 to 4.1% in December 2025. That marks an increase of about 11% over the twelve-month period.
Broader labor market conditions also weakened during this time. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for all workers increased from 4.0% in January 2025 to 4.4% by December 2025, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
A Sustained Fall in Foreign-Born Workforce
Monthly data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics household survey points to a sustained decline throughout 2025. According to an analysis by the National Foundation for American Policy, the foreign-born labor force declined by about 881,000 workers between January and December 2025.
The decline becomes even more significant when measured against expectations. The Congressional Budget Office and Social Security Administration had projected the United States would have about 1.3 million more foreign-born workers in 2025. When combined with the actual shortfall reported in BLS data, the gap rises to more than two million workers.
The Failed Policy Logic
Supporters of the Trump administration's immigration agenda had argued that removing foreign-born workers would open up jobs for US-born workers. Officials including White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller predicted that reduced immigration would raise employment and wages for domestic workers.
This logic rested on a simple assumption. Fewer workers competing for jobs would produce gains for those already in the labor market. However, economists describe this thinking as the "lump of labor fallacy" - the mistaken belief that an economy contains a fixed number of jobs.
Labor Force Participation Also Declined
Labor force participation data tells a similar disappointing story. The participation rate for US-born individuals aged 16 and older fell from 61.4% in December 2024 to 61.2% in December 2025. This suggests fewer US-born workers entered or remained in the labor market despite the withdrawal of foreign-born workers.
"The unemployment and labor force participation rates show fewer of the US-born being able to find jobs and fewer even bothering to look," said Mark Regets, a labor economist and senior fellow at the NFAP.
Why Fewer Immigrants Didn't Create More Jobs
Economists point to several reasons why the decline in immigrant labor failed to produce broader gains for US-born workers. When firms cannot find enough workers, they often scale back investment or expansion plans. This reduction in business activity directly reduces job creation.
Immigrants contribute significantly to economic demand through consumer spending on housing, food, and services. They also play a crucial role in starting new businesses. Limiting this workforce can shrink overall economic activity rather than simply redistributing it.
"Immigrants help exports, create jobs as consumers, fill niches in the labor market and produce dynamism for the U.S. economy that would not be there," Regets explained.
Long-Term Workforce and Growth Implications
The NFAP estimates that Trump administration restrictions on legal and illegal immigration could have serious long-term consequences. Their analysis suggests these policies could reduce the projected US workforce by 6.8 million by 2028 and by 15.7 million by 2035.
This workforce reduction could lower the annual rate of economic growth by nearly one-third. The foundation notes that immigrants accounted for more than half of US labor force growth between 2014 and 2024.
Evidence Contradicts Political Assumptions
The idea that fewer immigrants automatically create more opportunity for US-born workers has repeatedly failed to match economic evidence. During the 2024 campaign, President Donald Trump privately endorsed this view, crediting Stephen Miller with shaping his thinking on immigration policy.
The 2025 data provides the latest evidence against this assumption. Reducing immigration did not strengthen the labor market position of US-born workers. Instead, the contraction in the workforce coincided with higher unemployment and weaker participation.
"There is no evidence that US-born workers have benefited from the decline in foreign-born workers," the NFAP concluded in its analysis. The data reinforces long-standing economic evidence that labor supply reductions tend to constrain growth rather than spread opportunity.
