US Green Card Issuance Set for Major Decline Under Trump Administration Policies
According to a comprehensive analysis by the nonpartisan National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP), the United States is projected to issue up to 2.4 million fewer green cards by the conclusion of President Trump's second term. This significant reduction stems from the administration's implementation of stricter immigration regulations, including tightened family sponsorship rules, lower refugee admission caps, and expanded travel bans affecting numerous countries.
Projected Decline in Legal Immigration Numbers
The NFAP estimates that legal immigration, which encompasses permanent residency through green cards, will experience a substantial decrease under Trump's policy framework. During the 2023 fiscal year, 1,172,910 immigrants successfully obtained permanent residence status. However, projections indicate that between 1,546,710 and 2,369,998 fewer immigrants will receive green cards by January 2029, representing a dramatic shift in US immigration patterns.
Major Impact on Family-Based Immigration
The most pronounced decline is anticipated in the Immediate Relatives of US Citizens category, which constituted 48% of all green cards issued during the 2023 fiscal year. NFAP analysts estimate that 941,625 to 1,654,770 fewer family members will achieve permanent residence status due to the newly implemented restrictions. This represents a fundamental change to long-standing family reunification policies that have shaped American immigration for decades.
Workforce and Employment Consequences
Employers and educational institutions are expected to feel the initial impacts of these reductions most acutely. "Fewer green cards mean fewer highly skilled workers remaining in the United States," emphasized NFAP analysts, pointing to particular concerns for technology, healthcare, and research sectors that heavily depend on international talent.
Organizations relying on foreign expertise for specialized positions may encounter significant staffing challenges. Maria Chen, human resources director at a prominent US software company, explained to Newsweek, "When we cannot secure green cards for skilled foreign hires, it inevitably delays critical projects and may compel us to seek talent outside the United States entirely."
Healthcare and Research Sector Vulnerabilities
Hospitals and research institutions face particular vulnerabilities from the immigration slowdown. Dr. Samuel Rivera, director of a biomedical research laboratory, highlighted the crucial role international researchers play: "Graduate students and postdoctoral researchers from other countries are absolutely essential to our scientific work. Any reduction in green card availability could push these talented individuals to other nations, potentially slowing innovation within the United States."
Additional Policy Changes Contributing to Decline
The Trump administration has implemented several additional measures that collectively reduce legal immigration:
- Refugee Admissions Cap: Annual refugee admissions have been limited to 7,500, substantially below the 125,000 ceiling established during President Biden's final year. NFAP estimates this policy alone will reduce legal immigration by approximately 470,000 over a four-year period.
- Diversity Visa Program Freeze: Following a shooting incident at Brown University, a freeze on the diversity visa program is expected to decrease immigration by between 55,076 and 165,228 individuals. While the program's resumption timeline remains uncertain, NFAP projects disruptions lasting one to three years.
- Family Sponsorship Restrictions: Limitations on US citizens' ability to sponsor close relatives are projected to drive the largest reduction in legal immigration numbers.
- "Public Charge" Rule: This regulation restricts immigration for individuals deemed likely to depend on government benefits.
- Expanded Travel Bans: Travel restrictions now affect 39 countries, further limiting immigration pathways.
Broader Implications and Future Outlook
NFAP analysts emphasized that these measures "not only affect individuals hoping to reunite with family members but also significantly influence career decisions and workforce planning across multiple sectors." While the exact number of denied green cards remains uncertain, these policies have already generated considerable concern among employers, universities, and prospective immigrants.
The combined effects of family sponsorship limitations, refugee admission caps, and visa program suspensions could fundamentally reshape US workforce dynamics over the coming four years. The NFAP warns that these immigration reductions may have lasting consequences for American economic competitiveness and innovation capacity in an increasingly globalized world.
