US Grocers Shield Shoppers from Soaring Turkey Costs This Thanksgiving
American supermarkets are making a surprising move this Thanksgiving season by absorbing significant cost increases in turkeys rather than passing them on to consumers. Despite wholesale prices jumping dramatically due to bird flu outbreaks, retail stores are keeping turkey prices at last year's levels to maintain customer loyalty during the crucial holiday shopping period.
The Bird Flu Impact on Turkey Supply
The primary driver behind the price pressure is a severe outbreak of avian influenza that has devastated commercial poultry farms across the United States. According to new data from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), the situation became particularly dire during autumn months, with more than 2 million turkeys being culled after exposure to the virus by October alone.
Minnesota, which holds the distinction of being America's largest turkey-producing state, reported six confirmed outbreaks in just one month, significantly tightening the national supply. The USDA now expects overall turkey production to decline to 4.8 million pounds this year, down substantially from 5.1 million pounds in 2024.
David Ortega, a food economist at Michigan State University, revealed to NBC News that another virus called avian metapneumovirus is compounding the problem by reducing the number of viable eggs laid by hens. This dual viral threat has severely hampered farmers' efforts to rebuild their turkey flocks, creating sustained supply challenges.
The Pricing Strategy Behind Stable Retail Costs
While the supply crunch has pushed wholesale costs dramatically higher, retail pricing tells a completely different story. USDA figures show that the wholesale price of frozen turkeys—the variety most families purchase for Thanksgiving feasts—has skyrocketed by approximately 80% since last year. The cost per pound has jumped from under $1 to more than $1.70 at the wholesale level.
However, a separate USDA report indicates that advertised turkey prices in supermarkets remain roughly unchanged from the previous year. This discrepancy reveals a calculated business strategy where retailers are choosing to absorb these cost increases rather than risk losing customers during the competitive holiday shopping season.
Experts explain that supermarkets often use turkeys as what's known in retail as a "loss leader"—selling certain products at or below cost to attract customers who will then purchase other, more profitable items during the same shopping trip. This approach helps stores maintain foot traffic while making up the difference through additional sales.
Broader Thanksgiving Meal Costs and Consumer Impact
The strategy appears to be working for American consumers, as the projected cost of a complete Thanksgiving meal has remained broadly steady despite the turkey supply challenges. However, estimates for overall meal costs vary depending on the data source, with some analyses showing prices rising by nearly 10% while others indicate a decrease of up to 5%.
This pricing dynamic demonstrates how retailers prioritize customer retention during key holiday periods, even when facing substantial cost pressures from their suppliers. The situation also highlights the complex interplay between agricultural production challenges, wholesale pricing mechanisms, and retail marketing strategies that ultimately determine what consumers pay at the checkout counter.
As Thanksgiving approaches, American shoppers can enjoy stable turkey prices thanks to retailers' strategic decision to absorb the financial hit rather than pass along the increased costs caused by this year's severe bird flu outbreaks.
