Several prominent American universities are experiencing significant declines in international student enrollment this autumn semester, with drops ranging from 4% to as high as 78%, despite only a 1% overall decrease recorded by the Department of Homeland Security.
Sharp Declines at Popular Institutions
Universities that have traditionally been favorites among Indian students are reporting substantial enrollment decreases. Northwest Missouri State University witnessed the most dramatic decline at 78%, followed by DePaul University at 63%, University of Cincinnati at 25%, and Georgetown University at 20%. Other affected institutions include Penn State University, Boston University, and Georgetown University.
Education consultants reveal that the autumn intake fell even more sharply nationwide, with some reporting declines of up to 80%. The data was initially uncovered by Inside Higher Ed, an organization specializing in global education analysis.
Visa Challenges Deterring Applicants
According to Chirandeep Patnaik from Lemma One Consulting, an educational consultancy in Hyderabad, many Indian students who applied to these universities couldn't proceed due to visa slot unavailability. Even students with strong academic portfolios and scores are becoming hesitant about applying to top-tier American institutions.
"These universities were among the most preferred by Indian students. Several applied, too, but could not go because they did not get visa slots," Patnaik explained. "We do not expect any difference in the January intake. Students are not even applying to the top 100."
Saurabh Arora from University Living noted that while students still recognize the value of US education, they're applying more cautiously. Long visa wait times, higher costs, and policy uncertainties are driving this cautious approach. The next intake is progressing slower than usual, indicating sustained concerns among prospective students.
Shift Toward Alternative Destinations
As challenges with US education mount, Indian students are increasingly exploring other study destinations. Arora observed that interest in Germany, France, New Zealand, and select West Asian countries is rising significantly. Students are showing preference for countries where entry processes are faster and future opportunities appear more certain.
This trend away from American universities could have far-reaching consequences for both countries' educational ecosystems and global talent distribution.
Potential Impact on Global STEM Talent
Academic experts warn that restrictions affecting international students aiming for US universities could adversely impact both the quality and distribution of global STEM talent. Orn Boderversson, former dean of a US university, emphasized that this trend could severely weaken the Indian study abroad ecosystem.
"Indian students come to US varsities to build human capital, and they see US schools as places where they can make the best investments. If the cost of making those investments is raised substantially, fewer students will come and employers will face a shrinking supply of high quality, highly trained STEM talent," Boderversson explained.
The consequences could extend to innovation, productivity, and GDP worldwide, with particular acute effects in the artificial intelligence sector. The overall quality of the global STEM landscape may decline as a result of these enrollment patterns.
Hope for Policy Changes
Despite the current challenges, immigration expert Sachin Rajgire, founder of global talent acquisition firms Wynisco and Wynploy, remains optimistic about potential policy relaxation. The United States recognizes its dependence on immigrants to sustain its technology ecosystem, which could lead to reconsideration of recent measures.
"The US also knows they need immigrants to survive their tech ecosystem. So they will definitely rethink their measures," Rajgire stated. "Many rules were imposed in the past few months, but some leeway was granted later. There's still hope."
As the January intake approaches, the education community watches closely to see if these predictions materialize and whether the concerning enrollment trends will continue or reverse course.
