A new Goldman Sachs report argues that fears of an imminent 'AI job apocalypse' are overstated, though the technology is expected to significantly reshape labour markets over the next decade. The report, titled 'An AI Job Apocalypse,' compiles views from economists and AI experts who broadly agree that while AI will displace workers, it will also create new employment opportunities over time.
Key Findings on Job Displacement
Joseph Briggs, Senior Global Economist at Goldman Sachs, estimates that more than 9% of the labour force, or around 15 million workers in the United States, could be displaced during a 10-year AI transition. However, he believes the disruption will be temporary. 'Despite our expectation that AI-related job losses will lead to a meaningful amount of labour displacement, we continue to expect that labour market headwinds will be temporary. Key to this view is our expectation that over the long run AI will create many new jobs even as it destroys existing ones,' Briggs said.
Expert Perspectives on AI's Net Impact
Daron Acemoglu, Institute Professor at MIT and Nobel laureate in Economics, expects AI to have only a modest net negative impact on employment over the next five years. He cautioned that the longer-term outcome will depend on whether companies use AI to complement workers rather than replace them. 'AI is more likely to replace than augment jobs in the near term... So, I expect a net negative impact on the number of jobs in coming years. But the scale of job losses won't be anywhere close to the very large layoffs some are predicting,' Acemoglu said. He added that if AI investment continues to focus primarily on labour replacement, job losses could become more pronounced over the next decade.
Constraints on AI Adoption
Neil Thompson, Director of the FutureTech research project at MIT's Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, said AI's technical capability alone does not guarantee widespread job losses. 'The impact AI ultimately has on the labour market may not be nearly as large as its impressive capabilities suggest,' Thompson said, noting that reliability, access to data, costs and practical deployment remain major constraints on adoption. He described AI's likely impact as 'a rising tide' rather than 'a crashing wave,' allowing businesses and workers time to adapt.
Uneven Effects Across Occupations
The report finds that AI's effects are currently uneven across occupations. Goldman Sachs economist Elsie Peng said AI is both replacing workers in some occupations while increasing productivity in others. 'In practice, we find that AI augmentation has created jobs, but not enough to fully offset the job losses from AI substitution, resulting in a small net drag on the labour market,' Peng said.
Impact on Younger Workers
The report notes that younger and less-experienced workers could face greater near-term challenges, particularly in AI-exposed white-collar professions. However, Goldman Sachs economists Jessica Rindels and Pierfrancesco Mei say there is little evidence so far that AI has significantly harmed the employment prospects of recent college graduates, although they remain more exposed to future disruption than many other workers.
Long-Term Outlook
Overall, the report notes that while AI is expected to transform workplaces and accelerate productivity growth, historical experience suggests that labour markets are likely to adjust through the creation of new occupations, provided technological progress is accompanied by investment in human skills and complementary job creation.
