India's monsoon has shown a significant improvement in recent weeks, sharply reducing the rainfall deficit, but weak Kharif crop sowing continues to pose a risk for the agriculture sector, according to a report by Capital 360.
Rainfall Deficit Narrows Sharply
The report recorded a cumulative rainfall deficit of 15 per cent below normal as of Wednesday, down from 38 per cent a week earlier. This improvement was driven by strong weekly rainfall that was 45 per cent above normal. During the week ended July 8, India received 83.6 mm of rainfall against the normal level of 57.5 mm.
Geographical Spread Widens
The improvement in rainfall has also widened its geographical spread. According to the report, 25 of the country's 36 meteorological subdivisions have now received excess or normal rainfall, while nearly 49 per cent of districts recorded excess or normal rainfall.
Kharif Sowing Lags Significantly
Despite the improvement in rainfall, the report cautioned that Kharif sowing remains significantly behind last year's pace. As of Sunday, total Kharif sowing was 20.8 per cent lower year-on-year, with oilseeds down 39.3 per cent, cotton 22.9 per cent, pulses 21.8 per cent, coarse cereals 16.4 per cent, and rice 13.1 per cent. Sugarcane was the only major crop to record a marginal increase in sowing by 1.6 per cent.
Reservoir Levels Improve but Still Below Last Year
The report also noted an improvement in reservoir levels. As of Thursday, live reservoir storage stood at 32.4 per cent of total capacity, improving from the previous week. However, storage remained 36 per cent lower than the same period last year, though it was 7.5 per cent higher than the 10-year average.
Outlook and Risks
The sharp pickup in rainfall has improved the overall monsoon situation, but the pace of Kharif sowing and rainfall distribution across regions will remain important factors to watch in the coming weeks as they are expected to influence agricultural activity during the season.
