The final resolution of ongoing US-Iran discussions may extend beyond the current 60-day timeline as several geopolitical issues remain unresolved, according to Benjamin Tang, Director and Global Head of Liquid Bulk, Commodities at Sea, S&P Global Energy.
Talks Could Extend Beyond 60 Days
"But yes, there is a chance and maybe so that these discussions will take more than 60 days before we can bring an end," Tang told ANI on Tuesday when asked about the possibility of extending the peace window.
Tang noted that the agreement includes a clause allowing for continued discussions beyond the initial timeframe. "The 60 days, there is a clause in both bilateral agreements to extend the 60-day discussion," he said.
Key Unresolved Issues
Tang highlighted several unresolved matters that could influence the pace of negotiations. "There are many things that are yet to be decided," he said. Referring to the key challenges, he added: "I think the key one is what's the nuclear situation going to be, other things around Lebanon, about the different attacks and how the responses see."
These issues remain central to the future of the discussions. "Those are key issues that it's not clear whether 60 days is enough to resolve them thoroughly," Tang said.
Strait of Hormuz Traffic Shows Improvement
Despite uncertainties, Tang reported encouraging signs in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global energy trade. "We have seen transits go up in the last week, so we are now at roughly averaging about 30 transits per day, compared to 12 in the last few months," he said. However, he cautioned that traffic levels remain significantly below normal: "This is still a far cry from the 135 (vessels) that we saw before the war."
Tang noted that several operational and commercial issues still need to be addressed, including shipping approvals, insurance costs, and future transit arrangements. "So positive signs, but still uncertainties and details to sort through," he said.
Iranian Crude Exports Recovering
On Iranian crude exports, Tang said tanker activity has picked up recently. "In the last week, with the removal of the US blockade, we have seen a lot of Iranian tankers start to move out," he said. According to Tang, at least 12 Iranian tankers have exited in recent days, helping exports recover close to pre-war levels. "Our estimate is about 1.5 million barrels per day for the month of June. So that's similar to the way they were pre-war," he said. He added that many cargoes now reaching markets had been loaded before the disruption, and questions remain about how quickly Iranian production can fully ramp up.
India's Resilient Response
Tang also highlighted India's response to the crisis, stating the country has demonstrated resilience by rapidly securing alternative crude supplies and diversifying sourcing options. He noted that Russian, Brazilian, West African, and US crude grades have become important parts of India's import portfolio, while refiners continue to balance supply security with cost considerations.
Despite the recent improvement in vessel traffic and crude flows, Tang emphasized that the progress of US-Iran discussions will remain a key factor for energy markets, given its implications for regional stability, global oil flows, and energy security.
