Crude prices may climb again amid escalating US-Iran tensions
Global crude oil prices could revisit the highs seen earlier in 2026 if tensions between the United States and Iran continue to escalate, according to June Goh, Senior Oil Market Analyst at Sparta Commodities. In an exclusive interview with ANI on Thursday, Goh said the recent exchange of strikes between Iran and the US, along with Washington's decision to withdraw the 60-day waiver on Iranian oil sales, points to a clear escalation in the conflict.
Brent crude has climbed back to around USD 80 per barrel, and Goh noted that the sustainability of this rally depends on whether geopolitical tensions intensify further. "Unless we see another new MOU signed or a new stance from Trump and also from Iran, I think it's going to continue for a little while," she said.
Market trajectory and historical parallels
Goh refrained from giving a specific price target but indicated that the market remains on an upward trajectory if tensions persist. She drew parallels to the early phase of the conflict in March 2026, when Brent crude climbed close to USD 110 per barrel before easing. "We have been here before. It's almost deja vu in terms of the type of attack that we are seeing. It's like going back to the start of the war in the early month of March," she said.
"We cannot discount that whatever we saw at the early part of the year can likely happen again if the tensions continue to escalate," Goh added, warning that a repeat of the USD 110 per barrel level is possible.
Asian refiners better prepared through diversification
Despite the renewed tensions, Goh said Asian refiners are in a much stronger position than they were earlier in 2026. Refiners across Asia have diversified their crude sourcing by increasing imports from countries such as Canada, Venezuela, and Mexico, reducing their dependence on Middle Eastern supplies. They have also relied on strategic petroleum reserves to cushion supply disruptions.
"Compared to the start of the war, the Asian refiners here have embarked on a series of diversification of crude and they have been very successful in doing that," Goh said. She added that refiners are now better equipped to handle another disruption in Middle Eastern crude supplies and are unlikely to reduce refinery utilisation to the levels seen at the beginning of the crisis.
"I do not think that their run rates will drop anywhere near the levels that we saw before at the start of the crisis, the 50 to 60 per cent level. Maybe now they need to tune down from 80 per cent to maybe 70 per cent, but nothing to the severe 50 per cent that we saw before," she said.
Refined fuel markets remain under pressure
However, Goh cautioned that while crude supply management has improved, refined fuel markets remain under pressure due to limited refining capacity and low product inventories. Diesel and gasoline prices are rising faster than crude because inventories have been drawn down, particularly in Europe and the United States, while refineries are unable to produce enough fuel to meet peak summer demand.
"I think that will translate to a higher end-product cost for both diesel and motor gasoline for many players in the market," she said.
OPEC+ production hike may not materialise due to security concerns
Goh also noted that the recent production hike announced by OPEC+ may not translate into actual supplies if security concerns continue to disrupt tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz. Shipowners remain cautious about operating in the region, which could limit the impact of any production increase.
Impact on India: higher import costs and inflation risks
Commenting on the impact of higher oil prices on India, Goh said rising crude prices, coupled with elevated freight costs, would increase the landed cost of crude imports. If prices remain elevated, this could add to inflationary pressures in the country.
