Indian equity benchmarks closed lower on Monday, pressured by a combination of geopolitical caution stemming from former US President Donald Trump's renewed tariff threats and domestic concerns over higher-than-expected state government borrowing.
Geopolitical and Domestic Headwinds Weigh on Sentiment
Donald Trump's comments on Sunday regarding India's continued purchases of Russian crude oil cast a shadow over global risk appetite. Speaking about his displeasure, Trump indicated that the US could "raise tariffs on them very quickly," calling it "very bad for them." This followed remarks from US Senator Lindsey Graham, who suggested existing US tariffs were the chief reason India has reduced its Russian oil imports.
Simultaneously, domestic bond yields moved higher after the quantum of state governments' borrowing programme exceeded market expectations. This raised supply-side concerns in the debt market, further dampening sentiment for equities.
The benchmark Nifty 50 index finished 78 points lower at 26,250, while the BSE Sensex shed 322 points to close at 85,439. The banking sector gauge, the Bank Nifty index, declined by 106 points and settled at 60,044.
Technical Outlook for Key Indices
Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, provided a technical perspective on the Nifty and Sensex. He views 26,150/85,200 and 26,100/85,000 as crucial support zones. As long as the markets trade above these levels, the bullish structure is likely to persist. On the upside, 26,350/85,700 and 26,400/85,850 are immediate resistance levels. A breach below 26,100/85,000 could make the uptrend vulnerable. Given the volatile intraday texture, he advises level-based trading for day traders.
Analyzing the Bank Nifty, Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, noted profit booking from higher levels, forming a bearish candlestick. However, the broader structure remains positive as the index sustains above its short-term 10-day and 20-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) after a falling trendline breakout. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in a bullish crossover, indicating underlying momentum strength. As long as Bank Nifty holds above the 20-day EMA, a buy-on-dips strategy with a positive bias is recommended. Immediate support is at 59,700, resistance at 60,500, with positional support near 59,300.
Commodities: Gold and Silver Outlook
Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity & Currency at LKP Securities, stated that bullion momentum remains strong ahead of a data-heavy week in the US, including ADP employment and Non-Farm Payrolls data, which could inject volatility. Geopolitical tensions, including fresh developments involving the US and Venezuela, continue to support safe-haven demand. He expects gold to trade in a volatile range of ₹1,36,500 to ₹1,40,000 in the near term.
For silver, Anuj Gupta, Director at Ya Wealth, highlighted a broader range of $72 to $78 per ounce on COMEX. On the MCX, silver is in a broader range of ₹2,42,000 to ₹2,50,000 per kg. A decisive break above ₹2,50,000 could soon push prices towards ₹2,55,000 per kg levels.
Expert Stock Recommendations for Today
Market experts have recommended eight stocks for intraday trading on Tuesday:
Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking:
- Union Bank: Buy at ₹162.36, target ₹174, stop loss ₹156.60.
- Marico: Buy at ₹773, target ₹830, stop loss ₹745.
Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager of Technical Research at Anand Rathi:
- DLF: Buy at ₹712, target ₹745, stop loss ₹700.
- BSE: Buy at ₹2670, target ₹2750, stop loss ₹2570.
- Bharti Airtel: Buy at ₹2105, target ₹2170, stop loss ₹2070.
Shiju Kuthupalakkal, Senior Manager of Technical Research at Prabhudas Lilladher:
- TD Power Systems: Buy at ₹694, target ₹735, stop loss ₹680.
- Data Pattern: Buy at ₹2731, target ₹2875, stop loss ₹2670.
- Sumitomo Chemical: Buy at ₹479.40, target ₹504, stop loss ₹469.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies. Investors are advised to consult certified experts before making any investment decisions.
