India's Russian Crude Imports Surge 50% in March Amid Middle East Supply Disruptions
India's purchases of Russian crude oil have surged by about 50% in March, as refiners aggressively secure alternative supplies. This strategic shift comes in response to significant disruptions in shipments from the Middle East, driven by the widening military conflict between Israel and Iran. According to ship-tracking data, imports from Russia have risen to around 1.5 million barrels per day this month, up from 1.04 million barrels per day in February.
India's Heavy Reliance on Oil Imports and Middle East Dependence
As the world's third-largest crude importer, India meets approximately 88% of its oil needs through imports. The country consumes nearly 5.8 million barrels per day, with a traditional reliance on Middle East producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates. Historically, about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels per day have been sourced through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint.
The Strait of Hormuz is not only vital for crude oil but also handles roughly 55% of India's cooking gas (LPG) imports and 30% of liquefied natural gas supplies. These resources are essential for power generation, fertilisers, compressed natural gas (CNG), and household consumption. With shipments through the strait largely disrupted due to the ongoing conflict, Indian refiners have increasingly turned to Russian barrels to plug supply gaps.
Analyst Insights on Supply Shortfalls and Russian Imports
Sumit Ritolia, an analyst at Kpler, provided detailed insights into the current situation. "India was expected to import around 2.6 million barrels per day of crude via the Strait of Hormuz in March. At the same time, we are seeing a notable pickup in Russian barrels," he stated, as quoted by PTI.
Ritolia further explained, "Based on vessel tracking and credible market sources, incremental Russian crude imports in March could reach 1-1.2 million barrels per day over and above the February volumes. This means the effective shortfall from Hormuz exposure narrows to around 1.6 million barrels per day."
India's Refining Sector and Efforts to Diversify Supply
India's refining sector has played a crucial role in cushioning supply concerns. Net refined product exports averaged about 1.1 million barrels per day in 2025, and companies have intensified efforts to diversify crude sourcing from alternative suppliers. "Crude supply risk can be partially mitigated through diversification, and Russia flows. Refined product supply remains relatively comfortable," Ritolia noted.
However, he highlighted that LPG availability remains a key variable to watch in the coming weeks. India consumes nearly 1 million barrels per day of LPG, with only 40-45% produced domestically and the remaining 55-60% imported. Alarmingly, around 80-90% of these imports typically transit through the Strait of Hormuz, making the supply chain highly vulnerable to regional disruptions.
Challenges in LPG Supply and Limited Optimization Options
Refineries can attempt to optimize LPG output by shifting feedstocks away from petrochemical production toward LPG recovery and adjusting unit operations to maximise yields. "That said, such optimisation can only provide marginal incremental supply and cannot materially reduce India's reliance on LPG imports," Ritolia cautioned.
Even if domestic output rises by 10-20% through such measures, supply would still meet only about 47-50% of total demand, leaving a significant gap that must be bridged through imports. Sourcing LPG from suppliers outside the Middle East is possible but involves longer voyage times, which slows the replacement of disrupted cargoes.
Global Implications and India's Strategic Vulnerability
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical route for global LPG trade, and any disruption in the area immediately raises risks for LPG supply and shipping flows. A large share of LPG exports from the Middle East—particularly from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE—passes through Hormuz, making this chokepoint vital for Asian importers.
India is one of the world's largest LPG importers and relies heavily on Middle Eastern supply. This dependence means any disruption in the region could tighten availability for the country. India's LPG consumption is estimated at about 900-1,000 kilo barrels per day, with roughly 600 kilo barrels per day imported. Of these imports, nearly 80-90% originate from the Middle East, underscoring the strategic sensitivity of energy flows through the Hormuz corridor.
