Who Controls Pakistan's Afghan Policy? Experts Point to Military Dominance
In the midst of escalating tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan, a critical question has emerged regarding who truly holds the reins of Pakistan's foreign policy towards its neighbor. According to recent analyses and diplomatic sources, the answer points overwhelmingly to Pakistan's military establishment, which is playing a dominant role in shaping the country's strategic response.
The 'Deep State' Debate Reignited
Comments from various experts have reignited long-standing debates about Pakistan as a so-called 'deep state', where the military establishment wields significant influence over national security and foreign policy decisions, often overshadowing civilian government authorities. This phenomenon is not new but has gained renewed attention as bilateral relations with Afghanistan become increasingly strained.
Analysts note that the military's involvement in Afghan policy is deeply rooted in historical and geopolitical contexts. Pakistan has long viewed Afghanistan through the lens of strategic depth, aiming to secure its western border and counter Indian influence in the region. This perspective has traditionally been championed by military leaders, who prioritize security concerns over diplomatic or economic considerations.
Military's Strategic Priorities
The military's dominance in this arena is reflected in several key areas:
- Security Framework: Military strategists emphasize border control, counter-terrorism operations, and managing militant groups as central to Pakistan's Afghan policy.
- Diplomatic Maneuvering: While civilian diplomats engage in talks, military intelligence and security agencies often set the underlying agenda, influencing negotiations and outcomes.
- Resource Allocation: Decisions regarding military deployments, aid to Afghan factions, and cross-border initiatives are frequently directed by the armed forces rather than elected officials.
This dynamic has led to a complex interplay where the civilian government, led by the Prime Minister and Foreign Ministry, may publicly articulate policy, but the military's shadow looms large in implementation and strategic direction. Experts argue that this creates a dual-track approach, where official statements and on-ground actions can sometimes appear contradictory.
Implications for Regional Stability
The military's predominant role in Afghan policy has significant implications for regional stability. On one hand, it allows for a consistent security-focused approach, which some analysts see as necessary given the volatile nature of Afghanistan-Pakistan relations. On the other hand, it can undermine diplomatic efforts and civilian governance, potentially exacerbating tensions.
Diplomats from neighboring countries and international observers have noted that engaging with Pakistan on Afghan issues often requires navigating this military-civilian divide. The military's influence is particularly evident in matters related to:
- Border management and cross-border incursions
- Support for certain Afghan political factions
- Responses to militant activities originating from Afghan territory
As tensions rise, the military's assertive stance has become more pronounced, with increased patrols, security measures, and strategic communications aimed at asserting Pakistan's interests. This has, in turn, fueled Afghan suspicions and complicated bilateral dialogues.
Expert Perspectives and Future Outlook
Experts emphasize that understanding Pakistan's Afghan policy requires acknowledging the military's central role. They suggest that while civilian institutions may formulate broad policy frameworks, the military's operational control and historical involvement make it the de facto authority in this domain.
Looking ahead, analysts predict that the military's influence is unlikely to diminish, especially as security challenges persist. However, there is growing discussion about the need for greater transparency and coordination between military and civilian authorities to ensure a cohesive and effective foreign policy.
In conclusion, the question of who runs Pakistan's Afghan policy finds a clear answer in the assessments of experts and diplomats: the military establishment remains the dominant force, shaping responses and strategies in a region marked by complexity and conflict. This reality continues to define Pakistan's approach to its western neighbor, with profound consequences for both countries and the wider region.
