American policymakers hoping to replicate their Venezuela sanctions playbook to pressure Iran are likely to meet with significant failure, according to a recent analysis. The two nations, both governed by deeply unpopular regimes, have forged a resilient bond rooted in mutual hostility towards the United States, a partnership that has only strengthened under the pressure of energy sanctions.
The Unbreakable Axis: A Bond Forged in Anti-US Sentiment
The foundation of the Tehran-Caracas alliance was laid in the 1980s and has endured for decades. This relationship is cemented by a shared ideological opposition to Washington's influence in global affairs. This longstanding partnership has evolved into a critical strategic partnership, most visibly in their coordinated efforts to circumvent international energy sanctions. Where the US successfully crippled Venezuela's oil industry through financial and trade embargoes, the same blueprint is proving ineffective against Iran's more diversified and resilient economy.
Circumventing the Sanctions Regime
In recent years, the common need to bypass punishing energy sanctions has driven Iran and Venezuela into a tighter embrace. They have developed sophisticated methods to trade oil and other commodities, often using shadow fleets of tankers, barter systems, and opaque financial networks that are difficult for Western intelligence to track and disrupt. This cooperation allows both regimes to access vital revenue streams, undermining the primary goal of US economic pressure: to force political change or policy concessions. Iran, with its more advanced technological and military capabilities, has also been reported to provide assistance to Venezuela's dilapidated oil refineries.
Why the Venezuela Model Falls Short
The critical difference lies in the structure and resilience of the two economies. Venezuela's economy was overwhelmingly dependent on oil exports, making it highly vulnerable to targeted sanctions. Iran, while also reliant on oil, has a larger, more complex economy with significant non-oil sectors and has lived under various US sanctions for over 40 years, building considerable institutional experience in evasion. Furthermore, Iran maintains stronger trade and diplomatic ties with other major global powers like China and Russia, which provide alternative economic lifelines that Venezuela lacks.
The analysis, originally published by Bloomberg Opinion on 08 January 2026, suggests that Washington needs a new, tailored strategy for Iran rather than recycling tactics from its Venezuela campaign. The enduring alliance between these two sanctioned states demonstrates a growing trend of US-opposed nations creating parallel economic systems to survive and resist Western pressure.
