As the counting of votes concluded on Friday, the political fate of Bihar was decided, with the performance across the state's five distinct geographical regions playing a pivotal role in determining the final outcome. The electoral battle between the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Mahagathbandhan was intensely fought on regional grounds, with each area—Tirhut, Mithilanchal & Kosi, Saran, Seemanchal, and Shahabad—bringing its unique social dynamics to the forefront.
Tirhut: The Largest Battleground
Comprising 49 Assembly seats across districts like Muzaffarpur, Sheohar, Sitamarhi, Vaishali, and both East and West Champaran, the Tirhut region is the state's largest electoral zone. Historically, the two Champaran districts have been traditional strongholds for the NDA. A significant factor in this allegiance has been the improved law and order situation. Residents, who once lived under the threat of dacoits from the nearby Nepal border, have credited the Nitish Kumar government for empowering the police and gaining control.
The region's mixed population of upper castes, Other Backward Classes (OBCs), and Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) like Dhanuks and Mallahs, makes it a complex and keenly contested arena. While the Champaran belt largely swung the NDA way, seats in Sitamarhi and Muzaffarpur remained fiercely competitive.
Mithilanchal & Kosi: A Test of Loyalties and Polarisation
This region, with its 40 seats spread across Darbhanga, Madhubani, Samastipur, Supaul, Saharsa, and Madhepura, is a crucial support base for the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). It has a substantial population of Muslims and Yadavs, with Madhepura being a particular Yadav bastion loyal to the RJD.
This election, the Mahagathbandhan hoped to strengthen its position further with the support of Mukesh Sahani’s Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), aiming to woo the Nishad community settled along the riverine belts. However, districts like Darbhanga and Madhubani, which also have a significant percentage of upper-caste Brahmins and Muslims, witnessed potential polarisation along religious lines in some constituencies, a factor that was anticipated to benefit the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
Saran, Seemanchal, and Shahabad: The Swing Factors
The Saran region, encompassing Saran, Gopalganj, and Siwan districts with 24 seats, has always been a close contest. Its unique social combination gives a slight, but not decisive, edge to the NDA. All eyes were on key contests in Siwan, where BJP minister Mangal Pandey faced RJD's Awadh Bihari Choudhary, and in Chhapra, where the RJD's folk singer Khesari Lal Yadav battled the BJP's lesser-known candidate Chhoti Kumari.
In the Muslim-dominated Seemanchal region, comprising Purnia, Katihar, Araria, and Kishanganj with 20 seats, the Mahagathbandhan faced a complex challenge. In the 2020 elections, the Asaduddin Owaisi-led All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) won 5 seats here. The party's presence in the fray again threatened to split the Muslim vote bank, potentially acting as a spoiler for the grand alliance. Adding to the intrigue was the four-way contest in Jokihat, featuring candidates from the RJD, AIMIM, and Jan Suraaj, whose candidate Sarfaraz Alam was pitted against his own brother, the sitting RJD MLA Shahnawaz Alam.
The Shahabad region, covering Bhojpur, Rohtas, Kaimur, and Buxar districts with 22 seats, was the scene of a major upset in the 2020 polls. The Mahagathbandhan had swept 20 seats here, largely because allies like Chirag Paswan's LJP and Upendra Kushwaha's party contested separately, dividing the NDA vote. This time, with both the LJP (Ram Vilas) and Rashtriya Lok Morcha back within the NDA fold, the alliance hoped for a consolidated performance. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) was also seen as a potential factor in over half-a-dozen seats in this region.
The final results from these five regions collectively painted the complete picture of Bihar's political landscape, revealing which alliances managed to leverage local issues, caste equations, and developmental narratives to their advantage.
