Multiple exit polls for the 2026 Assam Assembly elections have indicated a consistent and decisive lead for the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) across major survey agencies. These agencies include Axis My India, JVC Times Now, People Pulse, India TV / Matrize, and P-Marq. According to the projections, the NDA is comfortably crossing the majority mark in the 126-member Assam Assembly, with seat estimates ranging from the high 60s to over 100 in some surveys.
Congress-led INDIA Bloc Trails
The Congress-led INDIA bloc remains a distant second in most projections, with seat ranges largely between the low 20s and 40s. This indicates weak seat conversion despite pockets of support. The All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and other regional players are projected to have a limited presence, with several polls suggesting a near-marginal impact on the overall outcome.
Leadership and Voter Preferences
Leadership trends show Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma leading as the most preferred chief ministerial face, with strong support across regions and demographics. However, a clear religious polarisation is visible in voter preferences, which has influenced voting patterns. Vote share analysis suggests a relatively closer contest at the aggregate level, but a significant seat gap exists due to the NDA's broader geographic and social coalition.
Key Issues Driving Voter Sentiment
Key issues driving voter sentiment include unemployment, illegal immigration, and corruption. Flooding, which has been a perennial concern in the state, appears less influential this electoral cycle. Region-wise data shows BJP dominance across Upper, Lower, and Central Assam, reinforcing a statewide advantage for the ruling alliance.
Overall Outlook
Overall, the exit poll trend indicates a clear NDA advantage heading into results day, with the opposition struggling to translate vote share into seats. The final results will be declared on May 2, 2026.
