New Delhi: The Congress party is set to go unrepresented from Gujarat in the Rajya Sabha for the first time, as the Election Commission announced polls for 24 seats in the Upper House on June 18. Among those retiring from the Rajya Sabha are two minority faces of the BJP in the government, Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge, and former Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda.
Seat Distribution and Projections
Based on the current strength of state assemblies where Rajya Sabha elections will be held on June 18, the Congress may gain at least one seat overall. The governing National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is expected to sweep all four seats in Andhra Pradesh. However, there is a possibility of an intriguing contest in at least two states—Jharkhand and Madhya Pradesh—if the BJP chooses to field additional candidates.
The 24 vacant seats are spread across Andhra Pradesh (4), Gujarat (4), Karnataka (4), Madhya Pradesh (3), Rajasthan (3), Jharkhand (2), and one vacancy each in the four northeastern states of Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Meghalaya, and Mizoram.
Gujarat: A First for Congress
With Shaktisinh Gohil, the lone Congress MP in the Rajya Sabha from Gujarat, retiring and his party lacking the numbers to retain the seat, the BJP stronghold will no longer have any member from the rival party in the Upper House. This marks a historic first for the Congress in Gujarat.
BJP's Prospects and Retiring Members
Against the 12 outgoing seats, the BJP is all but certain to retain 11 and could even bag more if an ally like the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) backs its nominee or if a few members of rival parties support its candidates—a political manoeuvring the BJP has often successfully employed in the past.
Union ministers Ravneet Singh 'Bittu' and George Kurian, the BJP's Sikh and Christian faces from Punjab and Kerala respectively, will retire from the Rajya Sabha next month. Bittu was elected from Rajasthan and Kurian from Madhya Pradesh, as the BJP lacked the requisite strength in the assemblies of their home states.
Deve Gowda and Kharge
JD(S) leader H D Deve Gowda, who is 93 years old, has indicated that he will not return to the Rajya Sabha. The numbers in the Karnataka assembly suggest that the BJP-JD(S) alliance can win only one seat, compared to the three it currently holds. Mallikarjun Kharge (83), the Congress president, is also among the retiring members from Karnataka.
Other States: Andhra, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh
While the YSR Congress has three outgoing MPs, its rout in the 2024 assembly elections means it cannot win any seat in Andhra Pradesh. In Jharkhand, the NDA is four short of the 28 MLAs needed to win one seat. In Madhya Pradesh, where former Chief Minister Digvijaya Singh is among the three retiring MPs, the Congress has 64 MLAs against the 58 required to win one seat. The BJP, which will have nearly 48 votes to spare after retaining its two seats, can force a contest if it chooses to field a third candidate.
