MUMBAI: Aviation experts have identified low visibility as the critical factor that initiated the chain of events culminating in Wednesday's tragic Learjet crash, which claimed the lives of Maharashtra deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar and four other individuals. Senior pilots who meticulously examined the available CCTV footage from the final seven seconds of the flight have reached this preliminary conclusion based on the visual evidence.
The Limited CCTV Footage
The crucial footage was captured by a fixed CCTV camera installed at the Gojubavi village gram panchayat office. This camera was not positioned or intended for aviation monitoring purposes, and its view was partially obstructed by nearby buildings, trees, and overhead cables, limiting the clarity and scope of the recorded events.
A Timeline to Tragedy
According to the timestamp on the footage, the sequence unfolded rapidly:
- 08:43:58: The Learjet entered the camera's field of view while descending toward the runway.
- 08:44:00: Merely two seconds later, the aircraft was observed undergoing an abrupt and severe roll to the left. The bank angle increased suddenly to nearly 90 degrees, putting the Learjet in a near-vertical orientation as it continued its descent in this highly abnormal attitude.
- 08:44:01-02: The aircraft then disappeared from the camera's view due to the aforementioned obstructions along its line of sight.
- 08:44:05: A fireball soared upward, indicating the moment the aircraft impacted the ground.
The extremely short interval—just seconds—between the onset of the steep roll and the crash suggests the loss of control occurred while the aircraft was still airborne and at a critically low altitude. "The pilots had no time or altitude to recover and execute a second go-around maneuver," explained an experienced A320 commander, highlighting the lack of recovery options.
Visibility Issues During Approach
A statement issued by the Ministry of Civil Aviation on the day of the accident detailed the crew's communications. During the final approach to runway 11, the crew reported to the Baramati air traffic control—which is manned by pilots from a local flying training organization—that the runway was not in sight. They subsequently initiated a go-around procedure.
During their second landing attempt, the crew again reported an inability to visually spot the runway, reinforcing the presence of significant visibility issues. "After a few seconds, they reported the runway is in sight and the aircraft was cleared to land," the ministry statement noted. It added that the pilot did not provide a read-back of the landing clearance, which is a standard protocol in radio communications to confirm instructions.
Expert Analysis of the Crash Dynamics
Officials familiar with the ongoing investigation indicated that the visuals are not consistent with a Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT) scenario. A CFIT event typically involves an aircraft that is under control impacting the ground due to factors like poor visibility or navigation error. Instead, the footage clearly shows the aircraft's wings were not straight and level in the final moments before impact.
Pilots and experts have proposed several possible factors that could explain the sharp and abrupt roll observed:
- Engine Failure and Asymmetry: "It could be an engine failure leading to asymmetry and the possible application of wrong rudder input by the crew," suggested a senior pilot.
- Technical Problem with Control Surfaces: Another commander pointed to a potential technical malfunction with the aircraft's control surfaces.
- Late Visual Acquisition and Overcorrection: "It's possible they visually spotted the runway late, when they were well below the 'decision height'. They may have then tried to aggressively align the aircraft with the runway to land, causing the aircraft to go out of control due to excessive correction or another technical problem," explained another aviation expert.
Standard aviation procedure dictates that if the runway is not in sight by the time the aircraft descends to the decision height—typically around 200 meters above ground level—the crew must initiate a go-around or divert to an alternate airport. The analysis of this tragic incident underscores the critical importance of adhering to these protocols, especially under challenging visibility conditions.
