The southwest monsoon has covered the entire country as of July 9, 2026, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). However, the agency has warned that rainfall is expected to drop substantially in the coming weeks.
Monsoon Onset and Coverage
The monsoon onset over Kerala this year took place on June 4, marking the beginning of the southwest monsoon season (June-September) in the country. By July 9, the monsoon had advanced to cover all of India, including the northwestern regions such as Rajasthan and Gujarat, which are typically the last to receive monsoon rains.
IMD officials stated that the monsoon’s progress was slightly slower than usual in some parts, but it has now reached the entire country. The timely coverage is crucial for agriculture, as the monsoon provides about 70% of India’s annual rainfall and supports the kharif crop season.
Rainfall Deficit and Forecast
Despite the full coverage, the IMD has projected a significant reduction in rainfall activity. According to the latest forecast, rainfall is expected to drop substantially over the next two weeks. This could exacerbate the existing rainfall deficit in several regions. As of July 9, the country has received 5% less rainfall than normal for the season.
“The monsoon trough is likely to shift northward, leading to subdued rainfall over central and southern India,” an IMD official said. “We advise farmers to plan irrigation accordingly.”
Impact on Agriculture and Water Resources
The anticipated drop in rainfall raises concerns for agriculture, particularly for crops like paddy, cotton, and sugarcane that are sown during the kharif season. The IMD has recommended that states with water-intensive crops monitor reservoir levels closely. As of July 9, water storage in 150 major reservoirs across the country is at 80% of last year’s level but still below the 10-year average.
Some regions, such as parts of Maharashtra and Karnataka, have already reported dry spells affecting sowing. The IMD’s forecast suggests that the rainfall deficit may widen if the predicted drop materializes.
Regional Variations
While the monsoon covers the entire country, rainfall distribution remains uneven. The IMD noted that east and northeast India have received excess rainfall, while northwest and central India are facing deficits. The drop in rainfall is expected to be more pronounced in the central and western regions.
“We are monitoring the situation closely. The monsoon is active over the north and east, but subdued elsewhere. The next two weeks will be critical for the overall seasonal rainfall,” the IMD said in a statement.
