Patna is witnessing intense political speculation as leaders from the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) have predicted a major split in the Congress legislature party in Bihar. State Public Health Engineering Department (PHED) minister and Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) leader, Sanjay Singh, stated on Thursday that the Congress is likely to split after the Makar Sankranti festival, with all its six Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLAs) reportedly in touch with NDA leaders.
Signs of Discontent and Absent MLAs
The claims gained traction as two of the six Congress MLAs, Surendra Prasad and Abhishek Ranjan, skipped a crucial party meeting on Thursday. The meeting was focused on the 'MGNREGA Bachao Sangram' movement. The remaining four legislators—Manoj Bishwas, Abidur Rahman, Qamrul Hoda, and Manohar Prasad—did attend the gathering, but their continued loyalty is under scrutiny.
Adding weight to the minister's statement, BJP quota minister Lakhendra Paswan also asserted that the Congress MLAs would join the NDA at the earliest. He provided a cultural context, stating the MLAs were waiting for the inauspicious period of 'kharmas' to end, which concludes around Makar Sankranti on January 14, before making any major political move.
Demands and Disenchantment Within Congress
Minister Sanjay Singh elaborated on the situation, revealing that the Congress MLAs have certain demands. "If met, all the six Congress MLAs will come to the NDA fold," he told reporters. He cited visible disenchantment against the party's leadership, pointing to recent internal squabbles among Congress workers in Madhubani even in the presence of the state party chief.
While Singh confirmed meeting Chief Minister Nitish Kumar to discuss the developments, he did not disclose which NDA constituent the Congress MLAs were more inclined towards. His statements found backing from other JD(U) and BJP leaders.
Political Reactions and Wider Implications
The Congress party, however, dismissed the claims. State media committee chairman Rajesh Rathorre took a dig at the LJP(RV) MLA and indirectly targeted CM Nitish Kumar, referencing his history of shifting alliances every two years since 2010.
Meanwhile, senior Congress leader Shakeel Ahmad Khan hinted at changing political equations, suggesting the party might chart a course independent of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). This points to a potential fissure in the opposition Mahagathbandhan, which currently stands weakened with just 25 RJD MLAs. Khan, however, criticised the BJP for allegedly creating an atmosphere of defection through "unethical practices."
RJD spokesperson Mritunjay Tiwari countered that despite winning 202 seats, the NDA appeared restless, indicating that "all is not well" within the ruling coalition.
The timing of these defection rumours is critical. With a cabinet expansion expected after Makar Sankranti and 10 ministerial berths lying vacant, political manoeuvring has intensified. The assembly arithmetic is delicate: the BJP is the single largest party with 89 MLAs, followed by JD(U) with 85. If even four Congress MLAs join the JD(U), it would bring the party to parity with the BJP, potentially reviving the "big brother" debate within the NDA.
Speculation also surrounds other smaller parties. There is talk that three of the four Rashtriya Lok Morcha MLAs, led by former Union minister Upendra Kushwaha, may desert him but remain within the NDA. The AIMIM has five MLAs and the BSP has one.
JD(U) spokesperson Neeraj Kumar summed up the ruling alliance's perspective, stating that Congress and RJD MLAs have realised that the people of Bihar trust only CM Nitish Kumar's leadership, making post-kharmas political shifts a natural expectation. NDA leaders have also claimed that a split within the RJD, led by Lalu Prasad, is on the cards, with several of its MLAs allegedly feeling restless.
