The Congress high command's marathon meeting on Tuesday over possibly replacing Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah with his deputy DK Shivakumar is being driven by one key concern: avoiding a Rajasthan-like political disaster in the state. Party brass appears to be working towards a compromise rather than a disruptive transition, keenly aware that mishandling the issue could trigger factional instability and hurt the party in the 2028 assembly elections.
Lessons from Rajasthan
Political strategist MB Maramkal, quoting senior Congress functionaries in Delhi, said, "In Rajasthan, Sachin Pilot was removed as deputy CM and state chief along with loyalists Vishvendra Singh and Ramesh Meena. Infighting weakened the party, which lost the 2023 assembly elections to the BJP." He added, "Whatever decision they make, it will not be hasty. The challenge is not merely changing a CM. It is about simultaneously managing competing power centres, caste equations, regional loyalties and the 2028 electoral roadmap."
Siddaramaiah's influence
Senior functionaries also revealed that the Congress brass is conscious that Siddaramaiah remains the party's tallest mass leader in Karnataka and continues to wield significant influence over legislators and ministers. He enjoys strong support among backward classes, minorities and sections of Dalits because of the government's guarantee schemes and his longstanding Ahinda social coalition. They say replacing him abruptly could unsettle these support bases at a time when the BJP and JD(S) are working to regain lost ground. "Any transition without consensus from Siddaramaiah can stir resentment among his supporters," a senior functionary said. "If not any other community, the party could instantly lose a sizeable section of Kuruba votes, the community to which he belongs."
Shivakumar's claims
Yet, Shivakumar, who has piled pressure on central party brass, is credited with rebuilding Congress after its 2019 collapse and playing a central role in the party's 2023 assembly victory. He has consistently maintained that a rotational CM formula was discussed in 2023 in the presence of the high command and should be honoured. "Denying him the top post after years of organisational work could demoralise the Vokkaliga vote base and weaken the party's grassroots machinery ahead of the next assembly elections. Shivakumar is also viewed as the party's principal troubleshooter and fundraiser in Karnataka," said a senior MLA.
Risk of factional instability
There is also the risk of factional instability if expectations in either camp are not managed carefully. Over the past few weeks, ministers and legislators aligned to both Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar have held separate meetings, exposing growing internal divisions that the party fears the BJP could exploit. Adding another layer to the power play is PWD minister Satish Jarkiholi, who is eyeing the KPCC chief's post in a move seen as positioning himself as a potential chief ministerial contender in 2028.
Political observers weigh in
"Congress cannot afford a perception of division in Karnataka," said Vishwas Shetty, a political observer. "Unlike earlier transitions in other states, both the CM and his deputy here command independent political authority and loyal legislators." The timing is politically sensitive as well, and the Congress brass is wary of another prolonged struggle in full public glare in one of the few large states where it remains at the helm. Therefore, sources say, a calibrated compromise is more likely.
