With only 12 games remaining in the league stage of IPL 2025, Lucknow Super Giants (LSG) and Mumbai Indians (MI) have already been eliminated from playoff contention. On the other hand, Gujarat Titans (GT) and Royal Challengers Bangalore (RCB) have almost secured their spots, while Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH) would need a dramatic collapse to miss out. Chennai Super Kings (CSK) and Rajasthan Royals (RR) have roughly equal chances of finishing in the top four in terms of points, even if jointly. Punjab Kings' (PBKS) chances have plummeted after their loss on Thursday. Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) and Delhi Capitals (DC) have very slim chances. With 4,096 possible combinations of results remaining, nothing is certain for any of the eight teams still in the race.
Probabilities for Each Team
Here is a detailed look at the probabilities for each team based on all possible result combinations:
- Gujarat Titans (GT): GT have a 99.9% chance of finishing within the top four points-wise (including ties). Their chances of finishing in first or second place, singly or jointly, stand at an impressive 79.1%.
- Royal Challengers Bangalore (RCB): RCB have a 99.3% chance of being among the top four by points and an 81.9% chance of finishing in the top two.
- Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH): SRH's chances of finishing in the top four by points are at 79.7%, with a 36% chance of being among the top two.
- Punjab Kings (PBKS): Thursday's loss to MI has severely dented PBKS's hopes. Their chances of ending up in the top four on points have slumped to 43.8%, and they now have only an 8.3% chance of finishing in the top two.
- Chennai Super Kings (CSK): CSK have a 56.3% chance of getting into the top four, but only a 22.2% chance of finishing among the top two.
- Rajasthan Royals (RR): RR have a slightly higher 57% chance of ending up in the top four, but only a 17.9% chance of grabbing one of the top two slots.
- Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR): KKR now have just a 3.7% chance of making the top four, and they can no longer even tie for the top two slots.
- Delhi Capitals (DC): DC's hopes of making the playoffs are at a measly 4.2%. They can at best finish tied for fourth place with anywhere between two and three other teams.
How the Probabilities Are Calculated
With 12 games remaining, there are 4,096 possible combinations of results. For each team, we analyzed how many of these combinations result in them being among the top four, either singly or tied. We also looked at how many combinations put each team in the top two, singly or jointly. For instance, DC finish in the top four in just 172 of the possible combinations, translating to a mere 4.2% chance, and even that is jointly, not singly.
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