Pune: The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), in collaboration with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and other institutions, has developed an artificial intelligence-powered forecast system that can predict the onset of monsoon at the local level up to four weeks in advance. The Local Monsoon Onset Forecasting System was recently launched and is designed as a probabilistic forecast platform. It combines artificial intelligence, weather prediction models, and statistical techniques to provide location-specific guidance for farmers. This system has the potential to transform how farmers prepare for the monsoon season.
Collaborative Development
The initiative has been developed jointly by institutions under the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), including the IMD, the Pune-based IITM, and the scientific team from the Human-Centered Weather Forecasts Initiative (HCWF). Scientists stated that the system aims to address one of the most critical decisions in agriculture: determining when the monsoon is likely to arrive in a particular area. A delay or early arrival of the monsoon often affects sowing, irrigation scheduling, and crop management practices. While existing seasonal forecasts provide broader outlooks, this new framework is designed to generate more localized and probabilistic information for agricultural planning.
Blended Forecasting Approach
The forecasting platform uses a blended approach that combines three distinct systems rather than relying on a single prediction model. One of these is the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS), an open-access AI weather prediction system developed by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and operated at the IITM. It also uses the IITM-Extended Range Prediction model, operated jointly by the IITM and the IMD, along with the Evolving Expectation Model developed by the HCWF team.
This integration of multiple models enhances the accuracy and reliability of local monsoon onset predictions. Farmers can now access probabilistic forecasts that indicate the likelihood of monsoon arrival within specific time windows, allowing for better planning of agricultural activities. The system marks a significant advancement in weather forecasting for agriculture, leveraging cutting-edge AI technology to mitigate risks associated with monsoon variability.
