AI-Powered System Predicts Hilsa Fish Locations in Bay of Bengal
Scientists have launched a groundbreaking AI-powered forecasting system designed to help fishers locate hilsa shoals in the Bay of Bengal. This first-of-its-kind initiative aims to enhance catch efficiency but has already sparked concerns among sections of the fishing community regarding sustainability and the potential risk of overfishing.
How the AI Model Works
The Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), under the Ministry of Earth Sciences, has developed an AI model called XGBoost to predict where hilsa is most likely to be found. According to an RTI reply from INCOIS, the service is already operational. The model analyzes complex clues such as water temperature, salinity, current speed, and flow direction, using data collected between 2012 and 2016, with validation conducted from 2021 to 2023.
Sandip Giri, the scientist leading the project, explained, "Hilsa doesn't follow simple patterns. Traditional methods struggle to handle these complexities, but machine learning can recognise such changing relationships much better." The forecasts are produced as digital maps highlighting potential hilsa-rich zones, and these advisories are designed to respect seasonal fishing bans, including a 5km coastal buffer zone.
Research and Implementation Efforts
To develop the tool, researchers used GPS-fitted boats in the Hooghly estuary, recording daily catch data—including amount, duration, and location—with government-approved gill nets. Giri noted that the results showed "promising prediction accuracy." The findings have been published in the journal Fisheries Oceanography.
At the ground level, Vidyasagar University is conducting training and awareness programs to help small-scale fishers access the advisories through mobile apps. Sourav Maity, a scientist at the university's Coastal Observatory and Outreach Centre and a project team member, stated, "The model factors in biogeochemical parameters such as water salinity, wind direction and speed, and temperature. We are currently testing its accuracy." Awareness camps have been held in Digha and Kakdwip, with plans for more in Fraserganj and Namkhana during the April-June fishing ban.
Concerns and Challenges
Despite these efforts, not many fishermen are aware of the project, and some express skepticism. Shyam Sundar Das, secretary of the Digha Fishermen and Fish Traders Union, said, "I do not know about anything like this." Debashis Shyamal, general secretary of the Dakshinbanga Matsyajibi Forum, added, "We are not aware of any such move. But if it happens, I doubt how sustainable it will be to locate fish using AI, bypassing traditional knowledge. Targeting specific concentrations of hilsa could trigger overfishing, disrupt the ecological balance, and ultimately cause severe stock depletion."
This initiative represents a significant technological advancement in fisheries management, balancing innovation with environmental stewardship as it rolls out across the region.
