Growing concerns about an artificial intelligence bubble have put several prominent AI companies under scrutiny, with search startup Perplexity emerging as the most likely candidate for failure according to industry insiders.
Conference Survey Reveals Investor Skepticism
During last week's Cerebral Valley AI Summit in San Francisco, an informal survey of more than 300 attendees revealed surprising consensus about which billion-dollar AI startups might stumble first. Perplexity, the AI search startup, topped the list of companies most likely to fail, while OpenAI secured the second position in this concerning ranking.
The survey, conducted by organizer and independent journalist Eric Newcomer, asked participants: "Which billion-dollar AI startup would you bet against?" The results reflect mounting anxiety among investors and stakeholders about whether the AI boom is transforming into a speculative bubble.
Ballooning Valuations Spark Comparisons to Dot-Com Era
Recent market movements have amplified these concerns. Earlier this month, Softbank sold its massive $5.8 billion stake in Nvidia, a company widely considered a clear winner in the AI revolution. This move has intensified discussions about potentially inflated valuations across the AI sector.
Several market analysts have noted that tech stock prices have soared too rapidly in the AI frenzy, drawing uncomfortable parallels to the 2000 dot-com bubble that eventually collapsed. Perplexity has reportedly raised consecutive funding rounds with valuations reaching $50 billion, according to Business Insider reports.
OpenAI's position on the vulnerable list stems from its own escalating valuation and ambitious spending plans. The ChatGPT-maker intends to invest trillions of dollars in building data centers and AI infrastructure, raising questions about sustainability.
Mixed Signals from AI Leaders
In response to the survey results, Perplexity spokesman Jesse Dwyer offered a pointed comment: "Geeze, it sounds more like the judgmental valley conference."
Interestingly, both Perplexity and OpenAI also appeared in a separate survey at the same event asking which AI companies attendees would bet on. Anthropic, creator of Claude AI, led that positive list after recently closing a funding round at a staggering $350 billion valuation.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has acknowledged the overheating concerns while defending the fundamental importance of AI technology. "When bubbles happen, smart people get overexcited about a kernel of truth," Altman told The Verge. He added: "Are we in a phase where investors as a whole are overexcited about AI? My opinion is yes. Is AI the most important thing to happen in a very long time? My opinion is also yes."
However, Altman strongly refuted suggestions that OpenAI's valuation is inflated. During a recent podcast appearance, when questioned about how the company plans to finance its massive spending commitments, he responded with pushback: "I just — enough. I think there are a lot of people who would love to buy OpenAI shares," he told Brad Gerstner of Altimeter Capital, an OpenAI investor.
The contrasting survey results and executive comments highlight the divided sentiment in Silicon Valley as the AI sector navigates unprecedented growth alongside escalating concerns about sustainability and valuation realism.
