A recent threat assessment published by Tsinghua University's International Security and Strategy Center (ISSC) on June 18, 2026, reveals China's perception of external dangers. The 13-page document, titled '2026 External Security Risks for China,' ranks ten threats to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Topping the list is cross-strait relations with Taiwan, followed by deteriorating China-Japan relations, US-China technology decoupling, South China Sea tensions, and global economic turmoil.
Taiwan: The Foremost Security Risk
The report identifies three contributing factors to the Taiwan risk: Taiwan independence activities, American arms sales to Taipei, and Japan's deepening involvement. The authors express concern that Tokyo might explicitly link the Taiwan Strait to Japan's own security. They also warn of potential cyberattacks on Taiwan's critical infrastructure by third parties or non-state actors, the resurgence of the '2027 timeline' narrative, and a possible visit by a European head of state to Taiwan. Though low in probability, these events could produce an enormous impact, leading to 'third-party entrapment' where parties inadvertently escalate tensions.
Despite these concerns, China continues to escalate pressure on Taiwan. On July 4, the China Coast Guard announced continuous 'law-enforcement patrols' east of Taiwan, harassing commercial vessels. The Taiwan Affairs Office described these patrols as a 'lawful exercise of jurisdiction' and a 'just act to safeguard national territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests.' Beijing also uses gray-zone tactics, such as tampering with seabed communications cables.
China-Japan Relations at Lowest Ebb
The second-highest risk is the structural deterioration of China-Japan relations, which the report describes as having reached their lowest point. The authors accuse Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi of provocative right-wing moves, turning 'manageable friction' into 'structural confrontation.' They warn of little prospect of Japan's political line softening, leading to permanently hardened relations. Specific military threats include Japan's increasing military presence in Okinawa, provocative actions near the Diaoyu Islands, accelerating deployment of US missile and defense systems on Japanese soil, and potentially breaching the 'Three Non-Nuclear Principles' by bringing nuclear weapons into Japan.
The report also notes the risk of maritime or aerial collisions between China and Japan, and that rising populist sentiment in Japan could escalate friction incidents involving Chinese nationals. However, China's own provocations, such as sending ships to the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands and having a defense budget nearly five times larger than Japan's, contribute to the tension. On July 6, China fired a long-range ballistic missile from a nuclear-powered submarine into the Pacific Ocean, following an intercontinental ballistic missile test in September 2024—the first such test in 40 years.
US-China Technology Decoupling
The third external threat is the decoupling of US-China technology and supply chains. The report suspects rising concerns in the second half of 2026, coinciding with US midterm elections that might exacerbate President Donald Trump's unpredictability. It warns of a qualitative shift from 'transactional shocks' to 'systemic containment.' The US and UK initiated the 'Tech Prosperity Deal' last year, consolidating a technology barrier against China. The report laments the establishment of rare-earth supply chains bypassing China, eroding Beijing's capacity for resource-based countermeasures.
Deniz Karakullukcu, a foreign policy and security advisor at the Grand National Assembly of Turkey, commented that Beijing fears the US goal is not to completely sever China from technology but to ensure 'controlled dependency'—where China remains dependent on American technologies in critical areas.
South China Sea Tensions
Fourth on the list is South China Sea tensions, with China perceiving dual structural pressure. The rotating ASEAN chairmanship taken by the Philippines in 2026 allows Manila to set the agenda, and the tenth anniversary of the Permanent Court of Arbitration's ruling on China's claims falls on July 12. The report warns that the Philippines may force the arbitration ruling into the Code of Conduct negotiations and dispatch warships to resupply Second Thomas Shoal. Any collision resulting in casualties could escalate sharply. Ironically, in August 2025, two Chinese vessels collided with each other while attempting to ram a smaller Philippine vessel.
China states that escalating tensions threaten its energy supply, trade corridors, and economic relationship with ASEAN. Yet Beijing continues to encroach into the Philippines' exclusive economic zone.
Global Economic Turmoil and Other Risks
The fifth risk is global economic and financial turmoil, which could damage the US dollar's credibility, cause surging commodity prices, and lead to passive appreciation of the renminbi. China, with a trade surplus of USD 1 trillion last year, fears a wolf-pack mentality of targeting it with tariffs. Karakullukcu noted that the report addresses the trade surplus not as a sign of a weakening economy but as a problem provoking political backlash.
Sixth is spillovers from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which enters a critical transition phase in the first half of 2026. Karakullukcu explained that if the war ends, the US could focus more on China, Russia could become less dependent on China, and Europe and Ukraine might continue criticisms. Seventh is the institutional secularization of China-EU economic relations, with Europe calling for a harder line and de-risking. Eighth is AI-enabled cyberattacks and critical infrastructure security, with China particularly worried about coordinated attacks. Ninth is protecting overseas interests amidst terrorism, with over 1,000 terrorist attacks in Pakistan last year. Tenth is a sudden North Korean crisis, including a nuclear test or long-range ballistic missile launch.
Karakullukcu noted that the report treats the East China Sea, Taiwan Strait, and South China Sea as interconnected, assuming a large-scale crisis need not start with a military attack. However, internal threats also loom: in 2025, over 1.012 million corruption cases were launched against CCP members, one in every 1,000. Political scientist Minxin Pei of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace estimates corruption costs China US$86 billion annually, about 3% of its GDP.
