Workers in agriculture and construction sectors in India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Nigeria are already losing 20 working days or more every year to heat stress, leading to loss of income especially for families already struggling to make ends meet, according to a new report by adelphi global.
First-of-its-Kind Analysis Links Heat to Economic Strain
The report is the first to trace a direct link between the physical health tolls of climate change and the resulting strain on family budgets and national economies. Spanning eight diverse economies – Bangladesh, Brazil, France, India, Indonesia, Italy, Nigeria, and South Africa – the research bridges climate science, public health, and economic analysis.
Extreme heat is being made more frequent and intense by climate change, primarily driven by the burning of fossil fuels like oil, coal, and gas. This year has already seen some of the worst heatwaves ever recorded, some virtually impossible without the influence of climate change.
Two Pathways Erode Living Standards
The report introduces a novel analytical framework capturing two distinct but reinforcing pathways through which climate-driven heat erodes standards of living. The first is a reduction of income: heat stress forces workers to slow down, take necessary extended breaks, or stop working altogether, and recovery from heat-related illness can take weeks. Especially for workers in the informal economy – who lack paid sick leave or health insurance – this can push them into poverty. The second is an increase in costs: heat-related illness drives up out-of-pocket medical spending.
"In countries such as Bangladesh, India, Indonesia and Nigeria, workers in agriculture and construction – sectors that underpin millions of livelihoods – are already losing the equivalent of around 20 working days or more per year to heat stress, which leads to an important loss of income, especially for families already struggling to make ends meet," the report said.
GDP Losses Even in Wealthier Nations
Even in countries where working day losses are lower, such as Brazil, South Africa, France and Italy, health impacts from heat lead to significant reductions in GDP each year, with losses up to 25 billion USD due to an increase in heat-related deaths. "In the countries studied, the compound effect of falling incomes and rising costs is felt most acutely in Bangladesh, India and Nigeria, where high working-hour losses, heavy out-of-pocket burdens and weak social protection systems combine to create cascading risks of poverty," it said.
Risk of Pushing Populations Below Poverty Line
The report warned that these dynamics could push significant portions of the population in these countries below the poverty line. "As global temperatures continue to rise, these losses to both household income and GDP are projected to worsen significantly. At the same time, health costs associated with heat-related illness are rising sharply, placing a disproportionate burden on households in countries where medical out-of-pocket spending is the norm and social protection is limited," it concluded.
