NEW DELHI: With the summer monsoon gradually advancing into other states after making onset over Kerala on June 4, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday said forecasts indicated a further strengthening of El Niño conditions during the season, which calls for immediate action on the ground as kharif sowing is underway.
El Niño Conditions Expected to Intensify
El Niño conditions are present over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and are expected to strengthen during the monsoon season, IMD stated while announcing the advent of this condition. El Niño, characterized by the warming of ocean waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, is invariably linked with a weak monsoon in India.
Contingency Measures in Vulnerable Districts
The latest forecast could be used by policymakers to immediately activate contingency measures in all 197 districts across the country that have been identified by the agriculture ministry as most vulnerable to the impacts of El Niño. These measures largely include the promotion of drought-tolerant crop varieties, less water-consuming crops such as millets and pulses, weather-based agro-advisory services, efficient water management, and location-specific adaptation strategies to minimize agricultural losses.
IMD's Forecasting System
IMD's forecast comes from its Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS), a state-of-the-art dynamical prediction model adopted by the meteorological department for long-range forecasting of the Indian monsoon. The latest MMCFS plume and probability forecasts suggest moderate to strong El Niño conditions during the southwest monsoon season, said the Met department, noting that it will continue to closely monitor the evolving ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) conditions and provide monthly updates.
