The southwest monsoon completed its advance across the entire country on Thursday, July 9, 2026, a day later than the normal date of July 8. The remaining parts of Rajasthan, Haryana, and Punjab came under its cover, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Monsoon Advance and Current Coverage
The monsoon arrived in the northwest region on July 1 after a slight delay and had covered most parts of the area by July 3, except for Fazilka and Muktsar districts in Punjab and Sirsa and Fatehabad districts in Haryana. Its advance had remained stalled along the Barmer-Jodhpur-Rajgarh-Bathinda axis for the past few days, even as many areas in Punjab and Haryana received varying amounts of rainfall.
El Niño Impact and Rainfall Forecast
“Weak El Niño conditions are currently prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The latest forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) and other global climate models indicate that El Niño conditions are likely to strengthen further during the southwest monsoon season,” the IMD said. As a result, overall rainfall activity is likely to remain below normal across the country. Rainfall is expected to be below normal over the Indo-Gangetic plains, south India, and the northeastern states.
The IMD has forecast a continuous wet spell over parts of northwest India until July 15. A fresh cyclonic circulation is likely to form over the northwest Bay of Bengal adjoining the Odisha and West Bengal coasts, while another cyclonic circulation is expected to develop over Bihar and adjoining areas. These systems are likely to bring light rainfall over east and northeast India, as well as the Western Himalayan region, during the second week of July.
Flash-Flood Warning for Uttarakhand
For July 11, the IMD has issued a moderate flash-flood risk warning for Uttarakhand’s Pauri Garhwal, Chamoli, Pithoragarh, Bageshwar, Almora, Champawat, and Nainital districts.
July Rainfall Deficit and Regional Variations
The IMD had earlier predicted that July would be drier than usual, with rainfall across the country expected to be 94% of the long-period average (LPA). One key reason for this deficit is the emergence of El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which leads to less rainfall in India.
According to an IMD bulletin issued on July 9, the monsoon remained active over Haryana during the previous 24 hours but was weak over Punjab. Light to moderate rainfall occurred at most places in Haryana, while isolated areas experienced heavy rain accompanied by thunderstorms and gusty winds. In Punjab, light to moderate rainfall was recorded at isolated places during the same period.
Rainfall Statistics: Haryana Surplus, Punjab Deficit
The monsoon has returned to the surplus category in Haryana but remains below the LPA in Punjab. From July 1 to the morning of July 9, Haryana received 41.7 mm of rainfall against an LPA of 33.9 mm for the period, registering a surplus of 23%. Punjab received 34.4 mm of rainfall during the same period against an LPA of 37.2 mm, resulting in a deficit of 7%.
Seasonal rainfall since June 1, however, remains below normal, with Haryana recording a deficit of 19% and Punjab 30%. Barring six districts in northern and central Haryana, rainfall has remained above the LPA across the rest of the state. Faridabad, Gurugram, and Panipat have recorded the highest rainfall since July 1, while Sirsa, which remains deficient by 99%, along with Ambala and Bhiwani, has received the least rainfall. In Punjab, rainfall has been above the LPA in 10 districts and below the LPA in 12. Pathankot, Faridkot, and Gurdaspur have received the highest rainfall so far, while Fazilka, Hoshiarpur, and Kapurthala have recorded the lowest.
