North Karnataka Prepares for a Challenging Kharif Season Amid Below-Normal Monsoon Forecast
North Interior Karnataka (NIK), a predominantly rainfed and semi-arid region, is likely to face significant difficulties during the upcoming Kharif season. The southwest monsoon, crucial for agriculture in this area, is expected to be below normal, according to the latest long-range forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Monsoon Projections and Historical Context
Rainfall during the June–September period in 2026 is projected at 92% of the long-period average (LPA). This marks the first below-normal forecast in over a decade, signaling potential disruptions for farmers across north Karnataka, where agriculture heavily depends on monsoon rains.
Guna M, project scientist-II at the North Karnataka Agrometeorological Forecasting and Research Centre, IMD, Dharwad, attributed this outlook to several factors. He highlighted that variability in rainfall—such as delayed onset, uneven distribution, and prolonged dry spells—could severely disrupt sowing and crop growth processes.
Climate Factors and Their Impacts
The likely development of El Niño conditions after June adds to the concern, as most El Niño years in India are associated with deficient rainfall. Although the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may turn neutral or slightly positive later in the season, it may not sufficiently counterbalance the adverse effects of El Niño.
Guna warned that farmers in the region could face multiple challenges, including moisture stress during critical crop stages, reduced sowing windows, and increased weather-related risks. Key rainfed crops such as sorghum, maize, pulses, oilseeds, and millets are especially vulnerable to these conditions.
Irrigated crops like cotton, chilli, and sugarcane will require careful water management to mitigate potential losses. The forecast underscores the need for strategic planning to ensure agricultural sustainability in the face of climatic uncertainties.
Proactive Measures for Farmers
Guna stressed the importance of proactive measures to cope with the anticipated monsoon deficit. He recommended pre-monsoon field preparation techniques, including deep ploughing, bund strengthening, and rainwater harvesting to conserve soil moisture and enhance water retention.
Farmers should consider opting for short-duration and drought-tolerant crops such as millets, pulses, and oilseeds to reduce risk. Efficient water management will be crucial, with protective irrigation through farm ponds, borewells, and drip systems during critical growth stages being highly advisable.
Split application of fertilisers can help reduce nutrient losses under erratic rainfall conditions, ensuring that crops receive adequate nourishment despite unpredictable weather patterns.
Pest and Disease Management
Guna also cautioned about a possible rise in pest and disease incidence due to fluctuating weather. Sucking pests in pulses and cotton, along with shoot fly and stem borer in cereals, are likely threats that farmers need to monitor closely.
Horticultural crops such as chilli and pomegranate may face fungal diseases, making integrated pest management (IPM) practices essential for maintaining crop health and productivity.
Key Strategies for Resilience
Emphasising the need for resilience, Guna highlighted that timely decision-making, crop diversification, and efficient resource use will be key for farmers in north Karnataka. These strategies can help cope with monsoon uncertainty and safeguard productivity during the 2026 Kharif season.
By adopting these measures, the agricultural community in North Interior Karnataka can better navigate the challenges posed by the forecasted below-normal monsoon, ensuring a more stable and productive farming season despite adverse conditions.
