Why Complete Control of Donetsk Region Matters Deeply to Putin's Russia
The Russian leader Vladimir Putin has made it clear that the ongoing conflict in Ukraine could reach a fundamental resolution only when specific territories come "under the control of our armed forces." As Russian and Ukrainian negotiators prepare to reconvene in Abu Dhabi for peace talks organized by the Trump administration, one core issue continues to dominate discussions: the ultimate fate of the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine.
The Unresolved Territory at Negotiation Table
For several months, Russian officials have consistently suggested that Moscow will not cease military operations until Ukraine surrenders the remaining 2,082 square miles of the Donetsk region that Kyiv still controls. This Ukrainian-controlled territory, smaller than the American state of Delaware, has become the central focus of diplomatic efforts to end the prolonged conflict.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized during recent Senate testimony that the Donetsk issue represents "the one remaining item" in peace negotiations requiring urgent attention. "It's still a bridge we haven't crossed," Rubio noted, highlighting the complexity of this territorial dispute. However, Moscow quickly disputed this characterization, with Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov insisting that multiple issues remain unresolved, including security guarantees Western nations have offered Ukraine.
Symbolic Importance and Propaganda Value
Since Russia's initial invasion of Ukraine in 2014, Donetsk has occupied a central position in Moscow's strategy to first break off and later annex predominantly Russian-speaking eastern Ukrainian territories. The Kremlin has consistently portrayed these regions as historically Russian, crafting extensive state propaganda around the narrative of "saving" the people of Donetsk and neighboring Luhansk regions, collectively known as the Donbas.
Russia has already achieved full control of the Luhansk region, and in late 2022, the Kremlin formally announced annexation of four Ukrainian regions: Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. While Russian negotiators appear to have abandoned claims to portions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions not currently under their control, they remain adamant about securing the remaining Donetsk territory.
The symbolic significance of this territory cannot be overstated. The area Ukraine still controls includes Sloviansk, the city where Moscow initiated what it called a pro-Russia "separatist" revolt in 2014. Russian propaganda has consistently depicted Sloviansk as the cradle of the "Russian Spring" movement. Failure to capture this city after twelve years of conflict could trigger significant criticism from pro-war nationalist elements within Putin's political base.
Strategic Calculations and Political Narratives
Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin, explains that controlling the remainder of Donetsk would enable Putin to shape a narrative of victory. "If you can get at the negotiation table something you have not achieved by force, the question of who won the war and who dictated the terms of ending the war will be answered," Gabuev observes. "There will be possibly no credible way to spin that this has been a strategic Russian defeat and a victory for Ukraine."
Gabuev further notes that any Ukrainian decision to surrender this territory would prove particularly contentious within Ukraine itself, where troops have been fighting and dying for this land for over a decade. "People have shed blood for that," he emphasizes. "Lots of families lost their loved ones during the fighting in Donbas. Now you are surrendering it? It's a ticking bomb under Ukrainian unity."
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stated his willingness to make compromises to end the war while maintaining that he will not compromise Ukraine's territorial integrity. In December, Zelenskyy proposed pulling Ukrainian troops back from the Donetsk region they control and establishing a demilitarized zone, provided Russia withdraws its forces from equivalent territory in Donetsk.
The 'Anchorage Formula' and Diplomatic History
As President Donald Trump's peace-brokering efforts stalled last summer, his administration floated a territory swap proposal involving Donetsk to reinvigorate negotiations with the Kremlin. Putin has since clung to this proposed arrangement. Following positive Russian response to the idea presented by special envoy Steve Witkoff, an August summit was organized in Anchorage, Alaska.
While specific details of the Trump-Putin agreement remain undisclosed, Russian leaders have since insisted that any peace deal must adhere to "the spirit of Anchorage" or "the Anchorage formula." This phrase generally represents Kremlin shorthand for the arrangement Putin agreed to with Trump: cessation of hostilities in exchange for Ukrainian surrender of remaining Donetsk territory plus acceptance of various non-territorial demands.
Zelenskyy rejected this proposal, noting that the Ukrainian Constitution prohibits territorial concessions without a nationwide referendum. The issue resurfaced in a 28-point plan developed last fall by U.S. negotiators with input from Putin's special envoy Kirill Dmitriev. This plan proposed Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donetsk territory to create a "neutral demilitarized buffer zone" that would be internationally recognized as Russian territory while prohibiting Russian troop presence.
Sam Charap, senior political scientist at the Rand Corporation, questions whether Russia would accept any deviation from the Anchorage agreement. "If you're Russia and you're offered this, are you going to accept that it has been walked back?" Charap asks, highlighting the fundamental problem that Ukraine never agreed to these terms.
Military Fortifications and Resource Considerations
The portion of Donetsk region still under Ukrainian control represents one of the most heavily fortified sections of the front line, with defenses dating back to 2014 before Russia's full-scale invasion. Military analysts suggest that losing these fortifications would significantly increase Ukraine's vulnerability to potential future Russian attacks, positioning Moscow advantageously should any peace agreement collapse.
Resource considerations also factor into Russian calculations. The Russian-occupied city of Donetsk, the regional capital, experienced severe water shortages last year that continue to pose challenges. The Siverskyi Donets-Donbas Canal, which supplies water to the region, was destroyed at the outset of the 2022 invasion and originates northeast of Sloviansk in territory still controlled by Ukraine.
During his December call-in news conference, Putin addressed these water shortages directly, explaining that the main water intake facilities remain in territory "unfortunately still controlled by the enemy." The Russian leader asserted that this critical infrastructure problem could be "fundamentally resolved" only when "this territory is under the control of our armed forces," revealing another dimension of Moscow's determination to secure complete control over Donetsk region.
As peace negotiations continue, the Donetsk question remains central to resolving Europe's most significant military conflict in decades, with implications extending far beyond Ukraine's borders to affect global security architecture and international relations.
