Explained: The Meteorological Factors Behind Mumbai's Unseasonably Warm February
Mumbai, typically known for its moderate coastal climate during winter, has been grappling with an unexpected surge in temperatures this February, leaving residents sweltering under conditions more akin to early summer. Meteorologists have pinpointed specific atmospheric changes as the primary culprits behind this unusual warmth.
Record-Breaking Heat and Departure from Norms
Despite February being officially categorized as a winter month in India, Mumbai has consistently recorded maximum temperatures hovering 3 to 4 degrees Celsius above the normal range over the past week. For instance, on Sunday, the city's mercury soared to 34.5 degrees, marking a significant departure of 3.6 degrees above the seasonal average. Prior to this, the Santacruz observatory logged temperatures exceeding 35 degrees for three consecutive days from February 5 to February 7, with deviations of over four degrees from the expected norms.
The Role of Wind Direction and Atmospheric Systems
According to Sushma Nair, a scientist at IMD Mumbai, the recent temperature spike is largely due to the influx of easterly winds. These winds, blowing from the landward side rather than the cooler Arabian Sea, carry warmer and drier air, which heats up rapidly compared to maritime breezes. "Over the past few days, we have easterlies in the lower levels which is indicative of warm winds blowing in from the land. This has led to a spike in temperatures in the past week," Nair explained.
Compounding this effect is the notable absence of western disturbances this season. These weather systems, which typically bring cloud cover, rain, or snowfall to north India and help lower temperatures in western regions, have been less frequent. "This season, we have observed less of western disturbances which usher in westerly winds that bring down maximum temperatures," Nair added, highlighting how their scarcity has contributed to the sustained heat.
Historical Trends of Warmer Februaries in Mumbai
This phenomenon is not an isolated incident but part of a broader trend observed over recent years. Data from the IMD reveals that Mumbai has been prone to above-normal temperatures during February, with several record-breaking instances:
- In 2025, the city experienced a heatwave with mercury levels surpassing 38 degrees for nearly three consecutive days, marking the warmest February since 2017.
- In 2024, Mumbai recorded its hottest February day at 37.5 degrees Celsius.
- In 2023, the warmest day was logged at 37.9 degrees Celsius, further underscoring the pattern.
These records suggest that warmer Februaries may be becoming more common, aligning with broader climatic shifts.
Forecast and Expected Relief
While some temporary respite is anticipated, with maximum temperatures projected to range between 32 and 33 degrees until February 11, the heat is set to intensify again. From February 13 onwards, temperatures are slated to spike back to 35 degrees, remaining above this threshold until at least February 15. Following this period, the city may witness cloudy skies, potentially offering some moderation in the warmth.
This detailed analysis underscores the complex interplay of wind patterns and atmospheric systems driving Mumbai's current weather anomalies, providing residents with insights into what to expect in the coming days.
