The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a concerning forecast for Uttarakhand and other Himalayan states, predicting below-normal winter precipitation following an unprecedented dry spell in December. This comes after the state recorded a staggering 100% deficit in both rainfall and snowfall last month, setting the stage for potential water and ecological stress.
IMD's Seasonal Outlook Points to Dry Winter
In its latest seasonal outlook released on Monday, the IMD stated that precipitation from January to March is likely to remain below normal across much of northwest India. This region includes the critical states of Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu & Kashmir–Ladakh. Specifically, the forecast indicates that seasonal rainfall over most parts of northwest India during this three-month period is expected to be below 86% of the long-period average (LPA).
A senior scientist from the Dehradun regional meteorological centre confirmed the trend, stating, "IMD's seasonal outlook for Jan to March indicates a rainfall deficit in Uttarakhand, following an unusually dry Dec." Experts have directly linked last month's severe dry conditions to the prolonged absence of western disturbances. These low-pressure systems are the primary drivers of winter rain and snow in north India.
More Than a One-Off Anomaly: A Multi-Year Shift
Meteorologists have warned that the current trend is unlikely to be an isolated event. Instead, it appears to reflect a multi-year shift in winter precipitation patterns across the western Himalayas. This shift has serious long-term implications for the region's fragile ecology and human systems.
The significance of winter precipitation in this region cannot be overstated. IMD data reveals that northwest India, which includes areas from Uttar Pradesh to Ladakh, receives approximately 18% of its annual rainfall during the January to March window. The dependency is even higher in Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh, where winter precipitation accounts for a crucial nearly 31% of the yearly total.
This season is vital for multiple reasons:
- Snowpack formation in the higher altitudes, which acts as a natural reservoir.
- Sustaining river flows for downstream agriculture and drinking water.
- Supporting rabi crop cultivation across the plains.
- Ensuring optimal water levels for hydropower generation.
Limited Relief and Cascading Consequences
The IMD outlook does offer a sliver of hope for January, forecasting that monthly rainfall across north India, including Uttarakhand, could fall within the normal range of 78–122% of LPA. However, meteorologists have quickly tempered expectations. They caution that a single normal month may not be enough to compensate for an overall seasonal deficit, especially if significant snowfall remains confined to very high elevations.
Compounding the problem are temperature predictions. While minimum temperatures in January are likely to be below normal across most of India, parts of northwest India may experience normal to above-normal minimums. Warmer nights could further limit snowfall at lower and middle elevations, reducing the crucial snow accumulation.
Experts are sounding the alarm on the potential cascading effects of a persistently dry winter. A significant snowfall deficit could severely impact water availability in the summer months. Agriculture dependent on meltwater and irrigation could face challenges, while hydropower generation may see reduced output. The winter tourism economy in hill stations, which relies on snow, is also at risk if the deficit continues into late winter and early spring.
