Former US President Donald Trump's announced strategy for Venezuela, centered on securing its vast oil resources, may be undermined by the very corporate interests it aims to benefit, according to a sharp analysis. The plan, advertised as a form of hard-nosed diplomacy without deploying American troops, involves dealing with the lieutenants of President Nicolás Maduro to restore US corporate control over the nation's energy wealth.
The Core of Trump's Venezuela Gambit
Donald Trump has framed his approach to Venezuela as a pragmatic exercise in realpolitik. The cornerstone of this strategy is to avoid a direct military invasion. Instead, the plan envisages Washington engaging with officials from the existing Maduro administration. The stated goal is straightforward: to guarantee American access to Venezuela's enormous proven oil reserves and to reinstate major US energy corporations as the primary operators in the country's oil sector.
These corporations are specifically identified as Chevron, Exxon Mobil, and ConocoPhillips. The prize is control over what is recognized as the world's largest proven oil reserves, a resource that has been largely off-limits due to extensive US sanctions against the Maduro regime.
Why Big Oil Poses a Problem
Paradoxically, the complex and entrenched interests of these oil giants could act as a spoiler for Trump's streamlined plan. The analysis suggests that the term "scupper" – meaning to deliberately sink a plan – is apt. The corporate strategies of these behemoths are not monolithic and are influenced by long-term investments, legal disputes over asset seizures, and negotiations with multiple global partners, including Russian and Chinese entities already present in Venezuela.
Their return and operational success are not simply a matter of political decree from Washington. It would require a stable legal framework, resolution of outstanding debts and compensation claims, and a guarantee of operational security—conditions that a backroom deal with Maduro's circle may not instantly create. Their risk assessments and shareholder interests might not align with the political timetable of Trump's realpolitik maneuver.
Implications for Global Energy and Diplomacy
The potential stumbling block presented by corporate calculus highlights the intricate link between international geopolitics and global business. For India, a major energy importer, the unfolding situation in Venezuela is significant. A successful US-led reopening of Venezuelan oil fields could eventually alter global supply chains and oil prices.
However, if the plan falters due to corporate hesitation or complexity, it could prolong the current status quo, keeping a significant portion of the world's oil reserves under sanctions and contributing to market volatility. The episode serves as a reminder that even the most powerful political figures can find their strategies complicated by the independent engines of multinational capital.
The analysis, updated on January 10, 2026, by Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar, cuts through the political rhetoric to examine the practical hurdles that lie ahead for this ambitious geopolitical and economic play.
