For over twenty years, the random selection process of the H-1B visa lottery provided a predictable foundation for the United States technology sector and the global talent that fuels it. This predictability allowed companies to plan their hiring cycles, universities to align graduations, and skilled professionals worldwide to map their careers with a degree of certainty. That era of relative stability is now set to end, ushering in a period of significant adjustment and concern, particularly for India's vast IT workforce.
From Random Chance to Wage-Based Selection: A Fundamental Shift
The US government has announced a major overhaul of the H-1B visa allocation system. Effective February 27, 2026, the familiar lottery will be discontinued. In its place, a new wage-weighted selection model will be implemented. Under this framework, applications will no longer have an equal chance. Instead, the odds will be tilted toward candidates offered higher salaries, with each wage level granting a corresponding number of "entries" into the selection pool.
US authorities state that the reform aims to ensure visas are granted to the most highly skilled and highly compensated professionals. While this logic appears straightforward, industry critics and Indian tech leaders argue it introduces new risks. They caution that high salaries are often concentrated in large corporations and major tech hubs like Silicon Valley. This could potentially sideline mid-level professionals, those in specialized but not top-paying roles, and companies operating outside America's most expensive regions.
Nasscom Sounds the Alarm for Indian IT Sector
India's premier software services trade body, Nasscom, has raised serious concerns about the impending change. The organization warns that the shift could upend decades of careful workforce planning, especially for small and mid-sized enterprises (SMEs) that form a crucial part of the industry's ecosystem.
"A sudden shift to a wage-weighted model would introduce uncertainty, increase compliance complexity, and disrupt long-established workforce planning," Nasscom stated. The body highlighted that many firms synchronize their international hiring with academic calendars, client project commitments, and product launch schedules. This intricate planning, built around the predictability of the lottery system, now faces disruption.
Nasscom also pointed out that regional wage disparities within the US could distort outcomes. A critical engineer role in a cost-effective city may not compete on salary with a similar role in California, even if the skill and importance to the business are identical. This, they argue, narrows the talent pool and disadvantages both American companies outside tech hubs and the global professionals they seek to hire.
Broader Policy Shift and Uneven Industry Impact
This H-1B revision is not an isolated event. It fits into a broader reorientation of US immigration policy under the current administration. Recent months have seen proposals for steep fees on certain H-1B holders alongside the introduction of premium "gold card" visas for wealthy investors. Collectively, these moves signal a clear direction: immigration pathways are increasingly being tied to an individual's income and capital.
The impact of the new H-1B model will likely be uneven across the industry. Tech giants like Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, and Google, along with major Indian IT firms like Tata Consultancy Services, have greater financial capacity to adjust their compensation strategies. However, for smaller businesses and startups, the change presents a formidable challenge. Their planning must now incorporate complex wage benchmarks and compliance adjustments, raising the risk of project delays and talent shortages.
In response to these threats, Nasscom has appealed to US authorities for a more gradual transition. The trade body has requested a delay in implementation until the fiscal year 2028 lottery cycle. A phased rollout, they argue, would give enterprises crucial time to adapt recruitment strategies and overhaul compliance systems without jeopardizing their talent pipelines in an increasingly competitive global market for skills.
The end of the H-1B lottery represents more than a simple policy tweak; it marks a structural change in America's approach to skilled migration. While designed to reward expertise, the outcome may lead to a less diverse and more expensive workforce. For technology companies worldwide, and for Indian professionals in particular, the message is clear: the predictable rhythm of global talent access is fading. Navigating the future will require sharper foresight, higher costs, and resilience in a far more complex immigration landscape.
