India's Russian oil imports are on track to hit an all-time record of roughly 2.35 million barrels per day in June. Ironically, a conflict involving Iran helped strengthen Russia's position in India's energy basket. As fears grew over disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, Indian refiners rapidly diversified toward Russian crude, valuing reliability and stable supply over uncertain Gulf shipping routes.
Three New Threats Loom
But the record surge may face serious challenges with three new threats looming large. First, the end of a U.S. waiver that allowed India to import Russian oil without sanctions penalties. Second, Ukrainian drone strikes targeting Russian refineries, which could disrupt supply chains. Third, ongoing geopolitical instability in the Middle East, which could shift global oil dynamics.
India's Growing Dependence
Has India become too dependent on Russian oil? Will refiners continue buying at record levels? And can Moscow maintain supply under growing pressure? This report breaks down the shifting energy map and what it means for India's economy and energy security.
Indian refiners have increasingly turned to Russian crude since the Ukraine war began, taking advantage of discounted prices. However, the end of the U.S. waiver means stricter enforcement of the price cap, potentially making Russian oil less attractive. Meanwhile, Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries could reduce Moscow's export capacity. These factors combined may force India to reconsider its energy strategy.
The record imports in June highlight India's reliance on Russian oil, but the coming months will test the resilience of this supply chain. Energy analysts warn that over-dependence on a single source could pose risks if geopolitical tensions escalate further. India may need to diversify its oil sources and invest in domestic production to ensure long-term energy security.
