Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has retained a lead over right-wing opposition senator Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of October's presidential election, according to a new Datafolha poll released on Saturday.
Runoff and First-Round Projections
The survey showed Lula, of the left-wing Workers' Party, defeating Bolsonaro by 47 per cent to 43 per cent in a potential second-round runoff, matching the result recorded a month ago. In the most likely first-round scenario, Lula secured 41 per cent support, while Bolsonaro polled 31 per cent.
Datafolha surveyed 2,004 people across 139 cities. The poll has a margin of error of two percentage points.
Political Fallout and Denials
The findings indicate that Bolsonaro may have limited the political fallout from reports that he sought financial backing from a now-imprisoned banker for a film about his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, who was convicted of plotting a coup against Brazil's democratic order and is serving a 27-year prison sentence. The senator has denied any impropriety and said no favours were exchanged in relation to the financing of the film.
Lula's Running Mate and Tightening Race
The latest survey comes days after Lula formally named Vice President Geraldo Alckmin as his running mate for the October election, despite signs that the race has tightened considerably in recent months. At 80, Lula is seeking a fourth term in office and faces a challenge from Flavio Bolsonaro, 44, who has steadily gained ground in opinion polls. Recent surveys have suggested the contest could be headed for a closely fought runoff, a significant shift from December when Lula enjoyed a lead of around 15 percentage points.
Alckmin, a moderate conservative and former rival of Lula, joined forces with the president in 2022 to broaden support beyond the traditional left-wing base. Besides serving as vice president, he also holds the industry portfolio in the current government. Announcing his choice earlier this week, Lula said, "My colleague Alckmin is going to have to leave the ministry because he is candidate for vice president again."
The 73-year-old physician previously served four terms as governor of Sao Paulo, Brazil's most populous and economically powerful state. He also contested the presidency twice as the candidate of the conservative Brazilian Social Democratic Party. In 2006, Alckmin faced Lula in a presidential runoff but was defeated by the veteran politician, who is now seeking to extend his long political career with another term in office.
Outlook
With campaigning gathering momentum, the latest poll suggests Lula remains ahead, though the narrowing gap underlines the increasingly competitive nature of the race.
