The spring intake season for foreign universities has arrived, but a profound sense of caution has replaced the usual excitement among Indian students and consultants. A significant slowdown, extending beyond the United States to traditional favorites like Canada and the United Kingdom, indicates a major shift in India's overseas education landscape.
Sharp Decline in Applications to Top Destinations
Education consultants report a dramatic fall in new applications. Estimates indicate that application volumes for both the United States and Canada have plunged by 70% to 80%. The UK has experienced a somewhat softer, yet still substantial, decline of 20% to 30%. This downturn is striking because it contrasts with official data showing India's strong presence abroad. According to 2025 figures from the Ministry of External Affairs, Canada hosts the largest Indian student population at 4.2 lakh, followed by the US with 2.5 lakh and the UK with 1.7 lakh. However, consultants emphasize that these overall numbers hide the sharp drop in fresh applicants.
Ankit Jain of One Window Overseas Education Consultancy highlighted the severity of the trend, stating, "Despite Canada hosting the largest Indian student population, we haven't filed a single application this season, compared to over 20 during the same period last year." He attributed this to a 74% visa refusal rate and the chilling effect of prolonged India-Canada diplomatic tensions.
Root Causes: Visa Hurdles and Uncertain Outcomes
The United States continues to grapple with growing skepticism from Indian families. Consultants point to a combination of intensified scrutiny, visa caps, scarce appointment slots, and an unpredictable post-study job market as key deterrents. Arvind Manduva from I20 Fever revealed the scale of the drop, saying, "Last year, we processed around 500 applications in a single month; this year we are struggling to cross 50." He added that even students with strong academic profiles are hesitating due to uncertain job prospects.
The UK's decline, while less severe, follows a steady pattern. Mayank Maheshwari, co-founder of University Living, provided data showing a fall in Indian study visas from roughly 1.59 lakh in 2023 to about 92,000 in 2024, with only a modest recovery to nearly 98,000 in the year ending June 2025. Australia, home to around 1.40 lakh Indian students, is also seeing a dip, with new commencements for 2025 estimated to be down 15–16% year-on-year due to stricter visa checks.
New Destinations Gain Traction as Alternatives
As the traditional powerhouses falter, several European and non-Western countries are emerging as attractive alternatives. Consultants report a noticeable increase in enquiries for countries like Germany, Ireland, France, the Netherlands, and Spain. Nations such as New Zealand are also gaining interest. This shift is driven by students and families seeking better value for money, more affordable education, and clearer pathways to post-study work opportunities in a less uncertain environment.
This broader reset in global education plans underscores a fundamental change in how Indian students approach studying abroad. The decision is now heavily influenced by practical immigration policies, job market accessibility, and geopolitical stability, rather than just university rankings.
