The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a heatwave across parts of Punjab and Haryana for three days, from June 28 to June 30. However, isolated to scattered rainfall is expected on July 1 due to a western disturbance, followed by heavy rain and gusty winds of 40-50 kmph on July 2 and July 3, and thunderstorms on July 4.
Temperature and Rainfall Outlook
According to Surender Paul, Director of IMD Chandigarh, there will be no appreciable change in day temperatures initially. However, once the thunderstorm cycle begins, temperatures are expected to fall gradually by 4-6 degrees Celsius. The monsoon, which typically arrives in Chandigarh and northern Punjab by June 24 (revised normal date based on long-term average), is running late and is now likely to reach the region in the first week of July.
Monsoon Progress and Delays
As of June 28, the northern limit of the monsoon was at Surat, Indore, Mandla, Daltonganj, and Motihari, yet to enter Uttar Pradesh. Paul explained that the monsoon flow from east to west is currently stuck. It is expected to enter eastern Uttar Pradesh soon, reach western Uttar Pradesh in three to four days, then move into Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh, before touching northern Punjab and Chandigarh, and eventually Haryana.
Causes of the Delay
The IMD attributes the delay to El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean, which typically weaken and delay the southwest monsoon. Paul elaborated that El Niño involves warm water buildup along the coast of South America, altering air and cloud movement globally and disturbing regular wind patterns. For India, this often results in a weak or delayed monsoon. Additionally, north-westerly winds and frequent western disturbances are hindering the monsoon's progress.
