The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has signaled a strong revival of the southwest monsoon, with conditions becoming favorable for its advance into several parts of central India and the national capital, Delhi, in the coming days. According to the latest IMD bulletin, the monsoon trough is likely to strengthen, leading to widespread rainfall across the country.
Monsoon Current Status and Forecast
As of June 21, the monsoon has covered most parts of Kerala, Karnataka, Goa, Maharashtra, and parts of Gujarat. However, its progress has been sluggish over the past week, causing a deficit of about 20% in rainfall compared to the normal for this time of the year. The IMD has now predicted that the monsoon will pick up pace, with conditions becoming favorable for its advance into remaining parts of Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh within the next 2-3 days.
"The monsoon is set for a revival. We expect it to cover Delhi by the end of this week or early next week," said Dr. M. Mohapatra, Director General of IMD, in a press briefing. He added that the monsoon trough is expected to become active, leading to widespread rainfall over central and northern India.
Impact on Agriculture and Water Reservoirs
The revival of the monsoon is crucial for the kharif crop sowing, which has been delayed due to the deficit rainfall. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, sowing of crops like paddy, pulses, and oilseeds is lagging behind by 15% compared to last year. The IMD's forecast of normal to above-normal rainfall in the coming weeks is expected to boost agricultural activities and replenish water reservoirs across the country.
"The revival will be a big relief for farmers. We are advising them to start sowing operations as soon as the rainfall begins," said a senior official from the Ministry of Agriculture. The water storage in 91 major reservoirs across the country is currently at 22% of their live capacity, which is 10% lower than the normal for this period. The forecasted rains are expected to improve the situation.
Delhi and NCR Weather Alert
For Delhi and the National Capital Region (NCR), the IMD has issued a yellow alert, predicting light to moderate rainfall from June 23 onwards. The maximum temperature in Delhi is expected to drop by 3-4 degrees Celsius, providing relief from the ongoing heatwave conditions. The city has been experiencing temperatures above 40°C for the past week, with the mercury touching 44°C in some areas.
"Delhi will see a significant drop in temperature as the monsoon approaches. We advise residents to stay prepared for sudden downpours and waterlogging in low-lying areas," said an IMD official. The rainfall is expected to continue for at least 3-4 days, with the possibility of heavy showers on June 24 and 25.
Regional Breakdown of Monsoon Progress
The IMD has provided a detailed regional forecast for the next five days. In western India, Gujarat and Maharashtra are likely to receive heavy rainfall, especially in the coastal areas. Central India, including Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, will see widespread showers. In eastern India, Odisha and West Bengal are expected to get moderate rainfall, while the northeastern states will continue to experience active monsoon conditions.
For northern India, apart from Delhi, states like Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan are also expected to receive rainfall from June 23 onwards. The IMD has warned of possible flash floods in some areas of Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh due to heavy downpours.
Long-Term Outlook
The IMD has maintained its forecast of normal monsoon for the entire season, with rainfall expected to be 100% of the long-period average. The revival is expected to continue through July, which is the most crucial month for agriculture. The El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean are weakening, which is favorable for the Indian monsoon.
"We are confident that the monsoon will be normal this year. The current deficit is temporary and will be covered in the coming weeks," said Dr. Mohapatra. The IMD will issue further updates as the monsoon progresses.
