It was a day of dramatic upheavals across India. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) finally managed to win the state that had virtually become its final frontier over the past decade. Tamil superstar Vijay made a stunning political debut and appears set to become the next chief minister of Tamil Nadu, while the Congress party got the better of the Communist Party of India (Marxist) in Kerala, clearing the way for a Left-mukt Bharat.
Assam: Himanta Biswa Sarma Holds Firm
Amid an anti-incumbency wave, Himanta Biswa Sarma held firm, routing the Congress to take the BJP to its first-ever majority of its own in Assam. The victory of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in tiny Puducherry may not be in the same league, but it served to drive home the message that smart politics and good alliances can help incumbents entrench themselves. The political significance of the BJP’s victory is enormous. It owes hugely to the continuing popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, despite being at the helm for 12 years — a story of remarkable resilience in an era of ever-soaring expectations. It reinforces the message about the party’s countrywide dominance and, along with the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam’s (DMK) loss in Tamil Nadu, will trigger an upheaval in the INDIA bloc ranks, making the Lok Sabha an easier place for the Modi government. The Congress has already begun warming up to Vijay at the cost of its “ideological brotherhood” with the DMK.
West Bengal: Mamata Banerjee Lags Behind Suvendu Adhikari
In West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee lagged behind Suvendu Adhikari after the second round in Bhabanipur. The BJP is now in control of the entire east, with the exception of Jharkhand, where it is the principal opposition and can realistically hope for success in the 2029 state polls. A BJP-led Bengal can smoothen matters for the Centre on issues as diverse as Goods and Services Tax (GST) and completion of border fencing. It will force “secular” players to take a fresh look at their playbook as they seek to negotiate the tension between expectations of large sections who are buying into Hindutva themes, and the need to cater to demands of Muslims. The presence of a sizeable Muslim population alone does not provide safe sanctuary from advancing Hindutva sentiments. Victory in Bengal signals the BJP’s reach beyond the Hindi heartland. The import of the battle of West Bengal transcends politics. It also signals the possibility of coexisting with regional distinctiveness without compromising on its core. It also shows that the Hindi heartland roots of the BJP are no longer the fetters they once were. Even in Kerala, the BJP managed to win three seats, from none earlier. It is also a reminder that Modi, with his promise of development, national glory and “tough on security” credentials, can break through the resistance of satraps.
Tamil Nadu: Vijay’s TVK Emerges as Formidable Force
Vijay also shattered the assumptions that had, because of their endurance, turned into certitudes — like the Dravidian duopoly where office had rotated between the DMK and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) over the last five decades. His senior and “superstar” Rajinikanth, who had the potential to challenge the establishment and was urged to take the plunge by his supporters, failed to summon courage. Vijay dared to dream big and has been rewarded for that. A wave of disgust with corruption and rising crimes against Dalits and women under the DMK has brought him to the gates of Fort St George. The DMK tried using a crude anti-Hindi and anti-Sanatan plank. It did not work, with a large number of Gen Z voters opting for the new promise: Vijay who, combining freshness with time-tested tricks like mangalsutras for women, managed to win over women while also peeling away the support of the DMK among Dalits, Christians and Muslims. His resultant emergence as a stronger vehicle of anti-DMK sentiments seemed to have also helped attract votes that would have otherwise gone to the AIADMK. He is on the verge of becoming the first Christian chief minister of Tamil Nadu (the fourth one in the south after A K Antony, Y S Rajasekhara Reddy and Jagan Reddy). The loosening of the duopoly’s grip on the state can potentially create opportunities for diverse players: from Seeman to the Congress and the BJP. Vijay has, in any case, refrained from taking a hardline stand against the north and Sanatanis, and this opens up the possibility of better working ties between the Centre and Chennai.
Kerala: Congress-led Coalition Wins
Victory for the Congress-led coalition in Kerala comes as a consolation trophy for the Congress: something the party desperately needed to make a statement of its presence. But the success carries with it the challenge of dealing with the perception of rising Hindu sentiment at a time when its dependence on the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) and Christian outfit Kerala Congress (Joseph) has grown. Of course, it also has to sort out the leadership issue, with V D Satheesan unlikely to give up his claim in favour of the party brass’s favourite — K C Venugopal — who is not a member of the legislative assembly. For the CPM, defeat marks not just loss of the only state where they held office, but further erosion as an electoral force.
BJP’s Strategy in Assam
The BJP’s victory in Assam was not in doubt. But its scale came as a surprise. The tally achieved despite decade-long incumbency and a determined effort for higher Muslim consolidation, which saw the Deobandi outfit Jamat-i-Ulema abandoning their own Badruddin Ajmal of the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), showed smart footwork by Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, who opposed Bangla-speaking Muslims, dubbing them Bangladeshi infiltrators. He managed to rally non-Muslims, and his success has exposed the Congress to the risk of appearing a pro-Muslim outfit — a vulnerability which may get enhanced because of its alliance with the IUML in Kerala as well as the thinning support base among Hindus in different parts.
