BJP Confident of Securing Three Rajya Sabha Seats in Odisha
In a significant political development, State BJP in-charge Vijaypal Singh Tomar declared on Friday that the party is poised to win three of the four Rajya Sabha seats set to become vacant in Odisha this April. This announcement comes amid intense speculation and strategic calculations as parties gear up for the upcoming elections.
Numbers Game and Seat Allocation
With 79 MLAs and the backing of three Independents, the BJP currently commands enough support to comfortably secure two seats. Each candidate requires the endorsement of 31 MLAs to win. Meanwhile, the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), holding 50 MLAs, is expected to clinch one seat. However, the fourth seat remains up for grabs, as no single party possesses the requisite strength to claim it independently.
Vijaypal Singh Tomar emphasized, "While the Parliamentary Board will decide the candidates, BJP will win at least three seats. I am hopeful of the party clinching three seats. We are strategising accordingly." This statement underscores the BJP's aggressive stance and confidence in its electoral prospects.
Historical Context and Current Dynamics
The terms of BJP's Mamata Mohanta and Sujeet Kumar, along with BJD's Muzibulla (Munna) Khan and Niranjan Bishi, are scheduled to end on April 2. Historically, in both 2019 and 2024, the BJD extended support to the BJP in Rajya Sabha polls, facilitating the election of Union railways minister Ashwini Vaishnaw as a BJP nominee. This occurred despite the BJD having sufficient strength to field its own candidate on both occasions.
Political observers are closely monitoring whether the regional party will repeat this gesture for a third time to back another BJP candidate. A key shift in the current scenario is that the BJD now sits in the opposition, unlike earlier when it supported the BJP while in power in the state. This change adds a layer of complexity to the political maneuvering.
Speculation and Potential Alliances
Although the Election Commission has yet to announce the official schedule, speculation is already rampant regarding potential candidates. Last month, Odisha Congress president Bhakta Charan Das revealed that the party explored a joint strategy with the BJD to secure the fourth seat. Given that both parties are in the opposition, Das suggested they could consider backing a common candidate.
However, BJD president and leader of opposition Naveen Patnaik has not indicated his stance on this matter. Party insiders suggest that the regional outfit is unlikely to align with the Congress, hinting at possible independent or alternative strategies.
Strategic Considerations for the Fourth Seat
While the BJD may not oppose the idea of a prominent Odisha personality being sent as an independent consensus candidate with BJP support, the saffron party might bargain for its backing for a BJP candidate. This potential negotiation highlights the intricate political calculations at play as parties vie for influence in the Upper House.
The upcoming Rajya Sabha elections in Odisha are shaping up to be a critical test of political alliances and strategies, with the BJP aiming to maximize its gains and the opposition exploring collaborative avenues.
